Movies · resolved market
Will The Traitors win Best Producer of Game & Competition TV at the 37th PGA Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7a867b786153d4d67376a2ac9a8fa6935cc226dc187ca27002bc52fc5bc709d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x354c…b301backed Yes | 41c | 1,196$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.64 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…81f6backed No | 59c | 470$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.3 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed No | 59c | 425$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.75 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc351…08f7backed Yes | 58c | 382$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed No | 42c | 382$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.44 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…9d96backed No | 58c | 377$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.66 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 42c | 377$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.66 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14c1…6512backed No | 59c | 301$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes | 61c | 291$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.49 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed No | 39c | 291$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f5…2102backed Yes | 43c | 146$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b1…e7e2backed Yes | 42c | 142$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa8…c20dbacked Yes | 43c | 141$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71fd…6426backed Yes | 42c | 139$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…6383backed Yes | 42c | 132$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe107…b6f0backed Yes | 42c | 131$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…c0ccbacked Yes | 43c | 129$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b21…ea37backed Yes | 43c | 126$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e1…1d2ebacked Yes | 51c | 119$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…7572backed No | 49c | 119$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6d…eb3ebacked No | 58c | 110$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23bd…13adbacked No | 57c | 110$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07ee…e2f8backed No | 58c | 109$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d6…f85abacked No | 57c | 107$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x617f…b50bbacked No | 57c | 107$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb8…a1b9backed No | 58c | 106$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbebd…7f96backed No | 58c | 106$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05b1…a67cbacked No | 57c | 105$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f38…3667backed No | 57c | 105$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…1d9bbacked No | 58c | 98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa523…c6c5backed No | 57c | 97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f70…2955backed Yes | 43c | 89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Yes | 59c | 85.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 48c | 55.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc205…eec2backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb32f…4f72backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will The Traitors win Best Producer of Game & Competition TV at the 37th PGA Awards?this page
- Will Jeopardy! win Best Producer of Game & Competition TV at the 37th PGA Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.