Europa Conference League · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7bbba3344cae79942dcbe3ab8111bf4f2f1b177d200dd7c0a169cd08d75119a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 19c | 1,255$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.46 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 19c | 1,250$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.99 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 8c | 675$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 23c | 309.57$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.2 | 139 | 20.1%28 W · 111 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 20c | 260.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.56 | 919 | 50.9%468 W · 451 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…97e5backed Over | 22c | 249.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +59%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a6…57c9backed Over | 21c | 185.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 77c | 138.5$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 338 | 47%159 W · 179 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 21c | 138.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 23c | 137.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0201…07d4backed Over | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…00cbbacked Over | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Over | 24c | 54.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee0…3bd5backed Under | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 4.5this page
- SC Freiburg vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SC Freiburg vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 1.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 2.5Under won
- SC Freiburg vs. MH Maccabi Tel Aviv: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)MH Maccabi Tel Aviv won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.