Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd82abe5a710782782defda4227d737e0f37c0c3b60e9724542df2c92b90b9ef6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,585
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 4c | 269.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 5c | 263.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 5c | 250.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 214.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…a2e1backed Yes | 15c | 200.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 6c | 190.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 8c | 182.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 20c | 177.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f87…2cd8backed Yes | 12c | 167.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 156.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5be3…27a5backed Yes | 12c | 155.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 16c | 146.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 16c | 139.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1648…c24bbacked Yes | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…58f9backed Yes | 13c | 109.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 110 | 19.1%21 W · 89 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…279bbacked Yes | 15c | 107.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 62c | 98.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.19 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed No | 25c | 76.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 65c | 68.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 77c | 60.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed No | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x070d…6ff7backed Yes | 20c | 51.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 78c | 47.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 28.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 18.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 77c | 15.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 80c | 14.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.