Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x584c928762b59a4795526b64dd0e8599d16bd0dc218b232e43d4f98703414d65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 38c | 522.22$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.72 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 55c | 333.94$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.45 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 31c | 319.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.33 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…a2e1backed Yes | 37c | 263.91$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 60c | 229.75$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.28 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 74c | 214$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 66c | 211.08$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.44 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 30c | 186.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 165.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 26c | 162.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 34c | 160$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 67c | 150.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 30c | 142.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 138.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 120.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 118.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 107$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 104.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1648…c24bbacked Yes | 35c | 100.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed No | 69c | 90.09$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 53c | 89.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 84.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 64c | 84.02$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 36c | 82.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked No | 61c | 82.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 75.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f87…2cd8backed Yes | 40c | 75.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 41c | 75.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…6bd8backed No | 35c | 73.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ed…e634backed Yes | 38c | 73.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 71c | 70.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 60c | 69.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…365bbacked Yes | 30c | 64.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…f9c4backed No | 72c | 62.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 71c | 62.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 69c | 58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 26c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 68c | 56.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 49c | 53.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.55 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 68c | 52.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 63c | 52.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 47.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 70c | 47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 67c | 43.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 65c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 38c | 38.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 65c | 37.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 68c | 36.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 64c | 36.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 75c | 34.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 69c | 33.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 70c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 62c | 32.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed Yes | 62c | 31.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 52c | 31.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 55c | 31.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 67c | 30.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 37c | 29.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 64c | 28.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…1840backed No | 58c | 26.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 64c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 69c | 23.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x072f…86b1backed No | 64c | 22.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 75c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 60c | 21.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 64c | 20.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 19.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…e242backed No | 61c | 17.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.