Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ed6833d1962b8e56504903c240123d25263762432a12240478e4363404e1a79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,023
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,023 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 48c | 810.13$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.26 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 4c | 369.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 52c | 349.31$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.89 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 27c | 347.47$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.13 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 34c | 316.87$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.91 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 316.39$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 46c | 290.5$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.5 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 39c | 239.79$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.44 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 194.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 180.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 44c | 178.24$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.06 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadf7…e4fdbacked No | 68c | 161.33$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…5a88backed Yes | 71c | 155.72$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.72 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 143.69$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.66 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 142.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 70c | 129.1$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…a2e1backed Yes | 42c | 123.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 49c | 122$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 32c | 111.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 47c | 105.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 53c | 102.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…d0babacked No | 51c | 100.94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1648…c24bbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 99.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 27c | 96.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 72c | 95.46$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 94.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.49 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 89.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 54c | 87.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 85.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 30c | 81.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…7bc3backed No | 50c | 80.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 59c | 76.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 33c | 73.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 71.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…c567backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 68c | 70.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 50c | 68.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 37c | 67.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 39c | 64.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 49c | 64.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.07 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 61.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.29 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…6bd8backed Yes | 43c | 58.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x393e…b2f0backed No | 73c | 55.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked Yes | 42c | 53.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 58c | 51.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 30c | 49.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 60c | 43.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 60c | 41.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 41.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa860…18fcbacked No | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…a8cdbacked No | 70c | 38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 118 | 67.8%80 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 61c | 37.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 54c | 36.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked Yes | 74c | 35.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa318…ccb3backed No | 68c | 34.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 41c | 33.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 48c | 31.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…ac1ebacked Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 35c | 28.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 46c | 26.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x41c3…4d56backed Yes | 58c | 25.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 60c | 25.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x789d…af8bbacked No | 55c | 24.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 70c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 62c | 22.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 64c | 22.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 77c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 70c | 20.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x923b…e08abacked No | 69c | 18.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 73c | 16.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddd…cab9backed No | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…e242backed No | 76c | 14.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C or higher on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.