Premier League · resolved market
Middlesbrough FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd82b5e233b2d15a83fcb1dd616e6c04673518766e039a2df4a7f4bd3f322a38d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9902…34b3backed Over | 12c | 3,041$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.39 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 13c | 952.31$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.48 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 2c | 871.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 286 | 33.9%97 W · 189 L | +19.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 9c | 829.47$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.81 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 12c | 512.33$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.64 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a93…04ecbacked Over | 23c | 435.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a10…d142backed Under | 77c | 435.46$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 13c | 409.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 408 | 21.8%89 W · 319 L | -53.7wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bfdcbacked Over | 15c | 365.66$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 4c | 330.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 13c | 253.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 6c | 250.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 13c | 232$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 457 | 51.2%234 W · 223 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 17c | 199.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.67 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…d2d0backed Over | 17c | 193.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 17c | 189.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0b…3988backed Under | 79c | 126.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…e094backed Over | 21c | 126.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 12c | 124.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Over | 16c | 84.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 17c | 77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 101 | 12.9%13 W · 88 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…d6aabacked Over | 14c | 75.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 19c | 56.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Middlesbrough FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Middlesbrough FC vs. Millwall FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Middlesbrough FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Middlesbrough FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Middlesbrough FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-1.5)Millwall FC won
- Spread: Middlesbrough FC (-2.5)Millwall FC won
- Spread: Millwall FC (-1.5)Middlesbrough FC won
- Spread: Millwall FC (-2.5)Middlesbrough FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.