Champions League · resolved market
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs. PSV Eindhoven end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd85f0ab415d4af277100b6f8d550bf760129bcd9942a49453d77b0af69fb6c39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 76c | 8,000$6,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,079.98 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 7,586$1,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,740.4 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…c16abacked No | 77c | 4,351$3,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,350 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Yes | 26c | 3,846$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,846.15 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 31c | 2,054$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.58 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 33c | 1,427$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.49 | 383 | 43.1%165 W · 218 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 21c | 1,001$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.24 | 203 | 43.3%88 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.23 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…45cdbacked Yes | 41c | 728.77$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +174.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 74c | 726.08$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.3 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Yes | 56c | 714.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed No | 66c | 711.97$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.9 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 4c | 655$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 30c | 554.41$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.51 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 65c | 527$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 27c | 517.9$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.87 | 249 | 63.1%157 W · 92 L | +45.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 74c | 500$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked Yes | 35c | 499.3$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.55 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 12c | 495.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…58c9backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.67 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2a…4945backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.67 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 75c | 408$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 68c | 396$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.72 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 28c | 369$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.31 | 291 | 42.3%123 W · 168 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 42c | 207.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Yes | 25c | 200.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.25 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 34c | 182.85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.68 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 73c | 171.23$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +106.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…8746backed Yes | 26c | 115.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.78 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…d3bcbacked No | 33c | 114.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +125%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…9de9backed No | 76c | 74.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.02 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 75c | 67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 76c | 52.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 23c | 44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 175 | 60%105 W · 70 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…2e8fbacked No | 77c | 33.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…e8bbbacked Yes | 78c | 25.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…6116backed Yes | 70c | 23.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 204 | 62.3%127 W · 77 L | +19.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…635ebacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…175dbacked No | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayer Leverkusen vs. PSV Eindhoven end in a draw?this page
- Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-10-01?No won
- Will PSV Eindhoven win on 2025-10-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.