La Liga · resolved market
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8802a32236617bf5285c2b60157128f59c57c3b014c2a9c2b94ca62e3e5ab53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- RC Celta de Vigoof Real Madrid CF, RC Celta de Vigo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,512 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Real Madrid CF | 1c | 4,028$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…87efbacked Real Madrid CF | 8c | 2,272$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.32 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Real Madrid CF | 8c | 2,044$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.56 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Real Madrid CF | 7c | 1,551$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.69 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Real Madrid CF | 9c | 750$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.67 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Real Madrid CF | 7c | 693.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Real Madrid CF | 7c | 425.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Real Madrid CF | 8c | 394$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 265 | 50.9%135 W · 130 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Real Madrid CF | 8c | 357.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Real Madrid CF | 14c | 299.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 317 | 45.7%145 W · 172 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Real Madrid CF | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f51…7b9ebacked Real Madrid CF | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880c…f5e2backed Real Madrid CF | 9c | 246.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae52…405cbacked Real Madrid CF | 20c | 83.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)this page
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5Under won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.