La Liga · resolved market
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dbe27e0a3a0138801ead71e825267a774c0f5178c87dfd8b0136fa6da7333ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,506 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 17,393$4,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,342.62 | 4,729 | 47.1%2,225 W · 2,504 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa661…eb28backed Over | 74c | 8,940$6,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,324.39 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Over | 74c | 3,799$2,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.76 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 24c | 3,784$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.07 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 74c | 2,025$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.5 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…7468backed Over | 74c | 1,749$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e6…d4cdbacked Over | 76c | 1,609$1,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.94 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 25c | 1,600$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.7 | 2,339 | 48.5%1,135 W · 1,204 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Over | 74c | 1,215$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.86 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 16c | 1,115$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.03 | 1,651 | 43.9%724 W · 927 L | -21.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…5946backed Over | 75c | 1,114$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.89 | 132 | 63.6%84 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5849…dcf1backed Under | 27c | 1,033$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.85 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 74c | 776$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.76 | 265 | 50.9%135 W · 130 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 10c | 465.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 24c | 453.18$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.76 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 64 | 78.1%50 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…aacbbacked Over | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22b2…e7cfbacked Over | 75c | 350.14$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.65 | 99 | 66.7%66 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 424 | 58%246 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…84cfbacked Over | 73c | 261.41$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 77c | 250$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 1,035 | 47.9%496 W · 539 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 77c | 250$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa4…ea76backed Over | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 77c | 249.99$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9054…d8a9backed Over | 74c | 245.15$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 77c | 223.18$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe46b…b195backed Under | 10c | 202.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 27c | 155.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.47 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e3…4844backed Under | 26c | 146.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 73c | 140.3$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 502 | 49.6%249 W · 253 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…7204backed Over | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +84%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 74c | 135.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 247 | 57.5%142 W · 105 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0293…f15bbacked Over | 75c | 133.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Over | 74c | 130$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 27c | 126.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Under | 27c | 114.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 25c | 111.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 428 | 51.4%220 W · 208 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Over | 75c | 106.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 147 | 59.2%87 W · 60 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb992…0838backed Over | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Over | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Under | 27c | 90.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Over | 73c | 82$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 158 | 51.3%81 W · 77 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd71…6714backed Over | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 26c | 74.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 276 | 53.6%148 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 74c | 71.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 321 | 45.8%147 W · 174 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…0af0backed Over | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7d…866bbacked Over | 77c | 65.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 27c | 61.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 121 | 52.9%64 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba2b…0c59backed Under | 27c | 60.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8f…2b46backed Over | 74c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…c61cbacked Over | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe83…3b00backed Over | 73c | 54$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…df66backed Over | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef0…db6fbacked Under | 26c | 42.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Over | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b4…74dcbacked Over | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d1…5557backed Over | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f9…e294backed Over | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0567…82d1backed Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…fe2abacked Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b28…7762backed Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 76c | 25.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 595 | 55.5%330 W · 265 L | +31.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25f6…fcd2backed Over | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 42 | 83.3%35 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69f6…4288backed Over | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 25 | 92%23 W · 2 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 71cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 74c | 18.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 342 | 52%178 W · 164 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Over | 75c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5this page
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5Under won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.