La Liga · resolved market
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7e8deb3d962bc2caf2adb097ac1ce018d8fb7a506e6043b28f0545d232dc73d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,515 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8566…c626backed Over | 35c | 28,572$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,999.97 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 65c | 22,150$14,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,752.54 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 68c | 2,260$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.46 | 118 | 39%46 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 14c | 2,207$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.95 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 21c | 1,300$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.57 | 490 | 57.1%280 W · 210 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…fbe3backed Over | 12c | 1,148$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.71 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Over | 8c | 599.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -81%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8b…fb33backed Over | 14c | 535.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 163 | 63.8%104 W · 59 L | +32.3wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 15c | 468$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Over | 18c | 447.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x084e…71d6backed Over | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…c2dbbacked Over | 21c | 241.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 13c | 199.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | -10.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…0b8abacked Over | 12c | 184$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf539…abb5backed Over | 13c | 152.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…0d47backed Over | 22c | 122.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…185cbacked Over | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…c97cbacked Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -21%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Over | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +5.9wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…3974backed Under | 67c | 71.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 22c | 63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 18c | 62.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 142 | 59.9%85 W · 57 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 35c | 57.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 596 | 55.4%330 W · 266 L | +31.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…4484backed Under | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8c…8293backed Under | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477e…23b3backed Under | 77c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5this page
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 1.5Over won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.