TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on August 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,115
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,838

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,115 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes42c2,271$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.0410342.7%44 W · 59 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+121.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No55c1,060$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.1588628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No56c687.78$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.8910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c4d…bb01backed No54c546.18$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.9821829.4%64 W · 154 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9506…1c4fbacked No64c307.77$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.0681558.5%477 W · 338 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No75c260.5$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.134,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes5c225.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.561929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes37c205.19$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.982,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes51c153.82$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.831,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked No66c142.99$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.1297152.2%507 W · 464 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b3a…bdb7backed No78c127.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No57c124.35$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.664,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes45c120.04$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No59c113.49$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.971,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No57c111.2$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.761,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes39c108$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6413834.8%48 W · 90 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes43c106.66$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6642948%206 W · 223 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5695…60e9backed Yes48c102.04$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9819252.1%100 W · 92 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88e0…ceeebacked No56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447345.2%33 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes24c98.34$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3158732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x457e…72ddbacked Yes44c96$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2413444.8%60 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes42c95$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.991444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No65c90$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.755,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes43c88.03$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.51,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes39c83.84$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5350860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No68c81.62$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.984,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No66c76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.744,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3175…9bb2backed Yes25c75.36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1916642.8%71 W · 95 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90ae…2475backed No54c71.38$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8457150.4%288 W · 283 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb11…6147backed No58c71.25$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.882867.9%19 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No74c70.12$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.131,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb26d…73f7backed Yes46c70$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.225261.9%156 W · 96 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes36c69.58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510354.4%56 W · 47 L+6.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes47c64.47$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.537,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes47c61.14$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2937144.2%164 W · 207 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes41c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8356048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes45c55.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacb0…4346backed Yes38c52.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015948.4%77 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No54c51$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.544,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No71c50.75$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.721,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x304b…a619backed No55c50$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.527552%143 W · 132 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd338…9fd3backed Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.529351.5%151 W · 142 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x34c1…1bb0backed No57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.57258.3%42 W · 30 L+10.6wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+57.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x450f…c578backed No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173060%18 W · 12 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+36.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2170148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c3a…8792backed No66c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1718045.6%82 W · 98 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1581855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes42c46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3223731.6%75 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2058138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No65c44$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.49,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed No54c43.7$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0555261.6%340 W · 212 L-2.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71d3…e130backed No69c43.59$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.593743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No57c42$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.092,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No55c42$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.989557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43eb…3d85backed No54c41.74$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.26046.7%28 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.352,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4aab…38ccbacked No55c36.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.357470.3%52 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No63c35.81$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.412,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed No56c35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.522945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed Yes49c34.83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.021,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No60c34.79$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.884,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes30c34.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes48c33.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1537541.6%156 W · 219 L-52.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-28%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No69c33.64$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No61c32.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.882,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb615…62b9backed No54c32$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7260550.7%307 W · 298 L-15.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No61c32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.483,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No66c31.27$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6377555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No64c31.25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2545675.2%343 W · 113 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No70c29.94$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.953,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes45c28.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No60c26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.55,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No56c26$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.444,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed No70c23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9859144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No63c23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.634,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No51c22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.81,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No75c20.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.222,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.689951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked No54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.239768.8%273 W · 124 L+11.3wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9aa8…63a4backed No61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.811525.2%29 W · 86 L-9.8wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-24.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1dd2…42efbacked No55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915545.2%70 W · 85 L-13.9wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed No76c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2835063.1%221 W · 129 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked No61c16.91$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6630834.4%106 W · 202 L+0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.