Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc33e1ce4a1928152d2454c276be040bc2c70f1b6b8ba56ba74177fbee83b64b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,568
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,568 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 48c | 1,025$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.14 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 54c | 963$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.58 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 45c | 693.7$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.66 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 76c | 618.69$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.76 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 16c | 303.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 56c | 288.2$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.24 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 7c | 227.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 48c | 219.25$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.56 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 203.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 42c | 200$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.08 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 59c | 200$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.69 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 49c | 193.95$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.04 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 47c | 171$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 35c | 139.6$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.74 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 138.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 129.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 124.22$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.45 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 50c | 109.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 105.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 48c | 94.68$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 47c | 94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked Yes | 62c | 93.55$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x74dd…2131backed No | 13c | 93.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 47c | 90.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 49c | 88.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 81.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 25c | 79.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 67.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 19c | 67.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 33c | 60.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 41c | 58.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 26c | 53.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 55c | 53.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7010…f245backed Yes | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 37c | 51.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 58c | 51.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 27c | 50.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 30c | 49.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 51c | 44.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 49c | 42.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 40.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 53c | 39.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 44c | 38.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 56c | 37.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 55c | 36.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed No | 49c | 34.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 33.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 45c | 33.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 37c | 33.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 31.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98a…5980backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 56c | 27.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x367f…ee28backed No | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 46c | 25.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 24.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 59c | 24.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 46c | 22.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db9…a4a8backed Yes | 74c | 21.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -16.6wins | -0.29per pick | 61cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 53c | 19.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 33°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.