MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8f03db33bed71d632b48984be1ec2ee3069b5853489521a4b06a8aaeea28ff5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 53c | 11,784$6,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,245.54 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 55c | 10,080$5,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,542.37 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 45c | 7,189$3,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,948.3 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 5,376$2,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,849.33 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…cb8fbacked Over | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…5efabacked Over | 48c | 1,970$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Under | 51c | 1,700$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 48c | 971.08$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.96 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 47c | 715.37$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.15 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 53c | 661$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.33 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 46c | 625.93$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 45c | 550.73$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.55 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 51c | 479.97$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.75 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 45c | 434.78$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.13 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 411.06$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.86 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2567…2371backed Under | 53c | 391.86$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.07 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 47c | 346.27$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.52 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Over | 45c | 295.51$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.53 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 45c | 283.76$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.07 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 48c | 272.89$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.9 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 54c | 194.44$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 53c | 189.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 50c | 166.27$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.14 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over | 45c | 143.27$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 114.82$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.55 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Under | 50c | 100.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 47c | 95.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d6…e952backed Under | 53c | 93.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 49c | 92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 51c | 73.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 52c | 68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.64 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47d5…138ebacked Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 47c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 42c | 52.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 49c | 47.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Over | 45c | 47.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…7d86backed Over | 51c | 46.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 47c | 44.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 47c | 42.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 57c | 40.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 52c | 30.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 50c | 29.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 45c | 28.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked Under | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…b949backed Under | 53c | 27.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…d4b3backed Over | 49c | 26.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 48c | 25.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 53c | 24.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Over | 54c | 22.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 50c | 20.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland GuardiansNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.