Middle East · resolved market
New Iranian President by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd90c263a8dd984f46597f027a4ac70ed6202399c2380307d22cf3b52ebc213ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 7c | 9,202$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.85 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -4.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 2c | 2,606$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 2c | 2,167$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…caa7backed No | 1c | 2,075$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed No | 8c | 1,541$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0de…07d5backed No | 4c | 1,219$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 10c | 1,134$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.08 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ff…8424backed No | 8c | 1,099$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b39…c72abacked No | 10c | 1,063$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 8c | 847.45$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 61c | 709.26$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.28 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4680…af24backed No | 10c | 622.82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…fcf6backed No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 69c | 489.69$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.19 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb078…0752backed No | 45c | 477.08$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 30c | 333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a4…8a06backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…8a8abacked Yes | 74c | 291.71$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.34 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed No | 24c | 246.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd697…def2backed Yes | 78c | 246.02$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 49c | 207.81$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.81 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed No | 44c | 200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -7.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…dca9backed No | 10c | 187.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 57c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345b…9f2ebacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09b3…55c7backed No | 22c | 96.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +51%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e51…7538backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…013ebacked Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f4…0312backed Yes | 77c | 15.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.