NBA · resolved market
Pelicans vs. Spurs: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd96573e2b56ec287fb0d47bf9014186c1e4f99702dda924fd8d9b60941cf26a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,124
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,124 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Under | 49c | 9,097$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,597.39 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 7,031$3,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,558.72 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 3,222$1,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,597.64 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Over | 51c | 2,411$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.6 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Over | 53c | 2,300$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.99 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 1,433$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.58 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Over | 51c | 1,293$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.6 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 52c | 407.94$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.13 | 205 | 36.6%75 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf1…8277backed Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 172 | 36%62 W · 110 L | -19.3wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 51c | 351.22$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.02 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 53c | 304.74$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.96 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 49c | 151.04$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.54 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 47c | 127.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 47c | 112$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.36 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 503 | 51.5%259 W · 244 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Under | 45c | 101.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…5aa5backed Under | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Under | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 487 | 40.7%198 W · 289 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Under | 50c | 46.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -15.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa26…564fbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Under | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 47c | 30.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 30.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…5e2dbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…7073backed Under | 47c | 29.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 108 | 42.6%46 W · 62 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Over | 54c | 26.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 409 | 60.6%248 W · 161 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee3…bf37backed Over | 53c | 21.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pelicans vs. Spurs: O/U 238.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Pelicans won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-7.5)Pelicans won
- Pelicans vs. SpursPelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Spurs: O/U 237.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Spurs: O/U 239.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Spurs: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Spurs (-12.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.