NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd43333b568660feff4879dc11ec96d96ea840467e931fc1d1a30038d3c1f36ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pelicansof Spurs, Pelicans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Pelicans | 52c | 41,554$21,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,814.55 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Spurs | 48c | 22,256$10,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,762.41 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Spurs | 47c | 15,272$7,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,177.99 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Pelicans | 52c | 10,555$5,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,021.94 | 461 | 45.6%210 W · 251 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Pelicans | 50c | 9,902$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,901.96 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Pelicans | 50c | 6,767$3,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,383.5 | 132 | 39.4%52 W · 80 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Spurs | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Spurs | 46c | 4,949$2,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,276.57 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…00bcbacked Spurs | 49c | 4,800$2,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,352 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | +18.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Spurs | 48c | 3,500$1,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,695 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Spurs | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 379 | 44.3%168 W · 211 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Spurs | 49c | 2,442$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,196.45 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Spurs | 52c | 2,097$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Pelicans | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…bd7dbacked Spurs | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Spurs | 50c | 1,984$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Spurs | 48c | 1,750$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Spurs | 50c | 1,494$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745.48 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Spurs | 49c | 1,371$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.59 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Pelicans | 50c | 1,266$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633 | 431 | 48.7%210 W · 221 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Spurs | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 579 | 50.1%290 W · 289 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Pelicans | 63c | 800$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.1 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Spurs | 49c | 708.57$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.56 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Spurs | 50c | 681$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.5 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Spurs | 10c | 500.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Pelicans | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Spurs | 49c | 467.19$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Pelicans | 50c | 400$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199 | 563 | 48.5%273 W · 290 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Spurs | 32c | 392.95$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.95 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Spurs | 52c | 390$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.8 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Spurs | 49c | 370.98$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.78 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Spurs | 48c | 337$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.76 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Spurs | 37c | 256.18$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.16 | 182 | 40.7%74 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96a7…a2f0backed Spurs | 44c | 255$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.05 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Pelicans | 51c | 239.22$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.22 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Spurs | 49c | 195.8$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.48 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Spurs | 49c | 160.48$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbec4…637fbacked Pelicans | 47c | 137.24$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.01 | 531 | 49.3%262 W · 269 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Spurs | 51c | 134.08$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.38 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Pelicans | 56c | 124.09$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…ef9abacked Spurs | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -10.1wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -30%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Pelicans | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Pelicans | 63c | 88.23$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d9…e3e6backed Spurs | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Spurs | 48c | 78.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Spurs | 14c | 76.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Spurs | 47c | 76.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Pelicans | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 479 | 48.6%233 W · 246 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Pelicans | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 421 | 46.1%194 W · 227 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Pelicans | 51c | 51.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x303a…6fd0backed Spurs | 51c | 50.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3a…e1f0backed Spurs | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Spurs | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Pelicans | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Pelicans | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Pelicans | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Spurs | 57c | 49.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba1…1703backed Spurs | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…5992backed Pelicans | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 378 | 52.9%200 W · 178 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Pelicans | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Pelicans | 51c | 38.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 436 | 47.9%209 W · 227 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Spurs | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Spurs | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…6483backed Pelicans | 80c | 34.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 72cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Spurs | 53c | 33.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Spurs | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Pelicans | 55c | 29.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954b…c3dbbacked Pelicans | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Spurs | 53c | 25.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 409 | 60.6%248 W · 161 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf2…ecfbbacked Pelicans | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40a6…a17ebacked Pelicans | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbd…6ffebacked Pelicans | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Pelicans won
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-7.5)Pelicans won
- Pelicans vs. SpursPelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Spurs: O/U 237.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Spurs: O/U 238.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Spurs: O/U 239.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Spurs: O/U 240.5Under won
- Spread: Spurs (-12.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.