MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd994d278871beee1307fba470955cf0c5f900fbd1dbbc2ff500a8e81385fba60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 1,230$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.34 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 1,022$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.43 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 535.97$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.7 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Colorado Rockies | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 432.85$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.41 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Rockies | 63c | 394.17$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.82 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 272.43$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.53 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 220$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.6 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0893…d1f1backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63ec…3b76backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 163.29$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.91 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 154.06$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 516 | 46.9%242 W · 274 L | -21.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 128$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.3 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Colorado Rockies | 20c | 96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 80c | 95.05$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 91.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 86.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.42 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 56c | 68.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…0f4ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 411 | 52.3%215 W · 196 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Colorado Rockies | 57c | 52.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 50.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3b…d591backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 31.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 21.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 80c | 13.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.64 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado RockiesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.