MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82fef90864f8742b215cdbb5abd22d3c79547be2c049c7ce2f43784bd8704abf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,218
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,354
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,218 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 32c | 5,512$1,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,767.08 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x595d…9ad0backed Over | 68c | 4,416$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.51 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 68c | 1,176$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.47 | 660 | 50.2%331 W · 329 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 54c | 758.48$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.9 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…6623backed Over | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.29 | 398 | 46.5%185 W · 213 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 734.05$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 32c | 270.57$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 33c | 228.03$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 53c | 208.39$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 66c | 190$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 47c | 164.3$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.08 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…af4fbacked Under | 53c | 149.13$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 49c | 125.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.32 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 45c | 120.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…ffcabacked Under | 53c | 119.38$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Under | 50c | 93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 67c | 92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 34c | 85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe3…a9f7backed Under | 55c | 83.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 55c | 81.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…5f54backed Under | 53c | 51.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb873…8debbacked Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 53c | 49.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 42c | 48.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Under | 43c | 48.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 70c | 43.31$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 49c | 41.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e11…d36ebacked Under | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 46c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6815…9edbbacked Under | 51c | 32.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 447 | 44.1%197 W · 250 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 51c | 32.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b8…2350backed Under | 53c | 21.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado RockiesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.