MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3d46066394e886695391eec383b0064673909752ba0fceae81250bdaf295aee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,136
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 55c | 3,364$1,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,849.94 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.22 | 792 | 47.5%376 W · 416 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 56c | 1,701$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.93 | 686 | 52.9%363 W · 323 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 1,356$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.84 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 55c | 1,200$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 960.82$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.25 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 49c | 903$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.63 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 756.6$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.11 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 34c | 531.12$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.97 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 45c | 501.72$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.27 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 443.11$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.93 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 427.58$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.17 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe459…737dbacked Over | 49c | 299.99$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 54c | 282.86$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.15 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 56c | 264.77$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.27 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 39c | 258.79$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.86 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 52c | 245.04$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.42 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 22c | 210.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.35 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 451 | 49.2%222 W · 229 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 59c | 169.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 54c | 131.11$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 1,022 | 50.6%517 W · 505 L | +54.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 44c | 120.23$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 39c | 111.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.76 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 100.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 80.86$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 64c | 56.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.05 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Over | 43c | 52.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 63c | 51.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 37c | 44.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 41c | 43.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 42.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 64c | 42.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 29c | 36.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 41c | 26.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 63c | 25.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0606…b2afbacked Under | 55c | 24.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…accebacked Under | 60c | 20.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado RockiesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-4.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado RockiesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.