Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd99edda0110e08a1e5b59677ddb7df4d06932c835876456626c2d738fda835cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed Yes | 36c | 273.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.62 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 60c | 252.93$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.24 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed No | 54c | 227.66$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.72 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 46c | 206$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.13 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…f0babacked No | 68c | 205$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.51 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 45c | 200.63$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.97 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 55c | 157.9$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 40c | 138.68$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 62c | 131.7$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 40c | 127.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 40c | 108$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 106.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 37c | 99.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 89.72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 63c | 61.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 71c | 50.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 62c | 43.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc901…0c1dbacked Yes | 32c | 42.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 77c | 40.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 39.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 63c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 36.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 61c | 34.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dec…12f4backed No | 71c | 32.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…7f85backed No | 62c | 32.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 64c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 31.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…2caebacked No | 69c | 31.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 229 | 37.1%85 W · 144 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 45c | 30.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed No | 78c | 25.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 20.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 63c | 18.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 63c | 18.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 61c | 18.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 60c | 18.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.