Earnings · resolved market
Will McDonald's (MCD) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9ae2d9403ea25ea0070178c3467df57386c53dd95d48886dfb5c2fef709bcce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 29c | 1,286$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.63 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 70c | 922.73$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.58 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 59c | 707.27$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.63 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 72c | 427.86$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.8 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 72c | 328.46$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.97 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa806…83cabacked No | 48c | 273$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.89 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.27per pick | 36cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 72c | 267$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.76 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 53c | 227.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.78 | 141 | 71.6%101 W · 40 L | +22.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 72c | 217.47$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ed…0ce8backed No | 48c | 169.83$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 168.55$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.29 | 179 | 35.2%63 W · 116 L | -14.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed No | 28c | 167.14$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 72c | 99.48$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…5af6backed Yes | 53c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes | 72c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 38c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked No | 38c | 71.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe123…2fc1backed Yes | 70c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -60%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 68c | 50.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…8e5fbacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed No | 57c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x56d3…e307backed No | 54c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -9.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb33…467cbacked Yes | 61c | 39.62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 63c | 23.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 262 | 50.4%132 W · 130 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8d…189cbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.