Fifa International · resolved market
Will the announcers say "VAR" during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9ce2be651e7725ba56c123d077524acb577dcc2c82716521d3ff385f3a975a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 14c | 2,269$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.31 | 489 | 61.3%300 W · 189 L | +71.0wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbe74…a70ebacked No | 17c | 1,166$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.95 | 233 | 57.9%135 W · 98 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…c2e6backed No | 18c | 1,004$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.75 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 16c | 697.04$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.41 | 202 | 50%101 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 18c | 568.87$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea51…8915backed No | 18c | 408.43$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed No | 16c | 268.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abe…1446backed No | 16c | 228.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed No | 17c | 211.02$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 176 | 32.4%57 W · 119 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed No | 17c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 192.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 1,686 | 20.6%347 W · 1,339 L | -28.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed No | 17c | 173.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 757 | 29.3%222 W · 535 L | -23.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…7302backed Yes | 80c | 125.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7623…6cb6backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…6477backed Yes | 79c | 97.06$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 79c | 95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 22c | 87.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…5199backed No | 21c | 71.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4f…e321backed No | 18c | 64.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 78c | 62.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 20c | 61.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2317…56c3backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…a901backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 80c | 15.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 792 | 31.1%246 W · 546 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd012…1d4fbacked Yes | 80c | 15.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 78c | 13.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.93 | 147 | 39.5%58 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b84…a108backed Yes | 79c | 12.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the announcers say "VAR" during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?this page
- Will the announcers say "Back-to-back" or "Back to Back" during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Corner" 22+ times during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?No won
- Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Free Kick" 10+ times during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Goal" 75+ times during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?No won
- Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?No won
- Will the announcers say "Hand of God" during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?No won
- Will the announcers say "Nutmeg" or "Nutmegs" during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Qatar" or "Russia" during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?No won
- Will the announcers say "Resilience" during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?No won
- Will the announcers say "Rhythm" during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?No won
- Will the announcers say "Shot" 15+ times during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?No won
- Will the announcers say "Turnover" during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Vertical" or "Verticality" during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?No won
- Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the England vs Argentina FIFA World Cup Match?Yes won
- Will the match not air?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.