Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9dbb6db578826373b858d214b47935aa05bff56a00d9fc73dfa693aa8c0f8f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4b78…4d2fbacked MOUZ | 70c | 12,050$8,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,466.73 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 8,671$4,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,288.42 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Natus Vincere | 61c | 4,039$2,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,568.76 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 42c | 3,087$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,805.04 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 29c | 1,264$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.57 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked MOUZ | 55c | 1,252$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked Natus Vincere | 34c | 1,184$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.84 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -10.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…7e3ebacked MOUZ | 7c | 1,105$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed MOUZ | 61c | 1,040$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.7 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…6ac6backed MOUZ | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed MOUZ | 57c | 700$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 595.89$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.95 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked MOUZ | 56c | 497.26$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.33 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…869bbacked Natus Vincere | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.8 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed MOUZ | 57c | 328.07$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Natus Vincere | 28c | 300$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.5 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…a54cbacked Natus Vincere | 46c | 269.9$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.36 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked MOUZ | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed Natus Vincere | 61c | 169.62$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.62 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b7d4backed MOUZ | 65c | 157.42$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd855…c823backed MOUZ | 53c | 139.62$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…4108backed MOUZ | 51c | 137.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.87 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d9…a6e1backed MOUZ | 74c | 135.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4a…4e5ebacked Natus Vincere | 53c | 95.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed MOUZ | 69c | 94.4$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…5d10backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 90$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.54 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x563b…774bbacked MOUZ | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked MOUZ | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb10…bdd3backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b7…fd5ebacked MOUZ | 56c | 44.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Natus Vincere | 58c | 41.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Natus Vincere | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb62e…543bbacked Natus Vincere | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked MOUZ | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked MOUZ | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3)MOUZ won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.