Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a870892b6fc90aa0c5e32841723163f9f18ee778688c2e6374a935e21d47021
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof Natus Vincere, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,188
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,188 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdec6…1d8ebacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 17,704$8,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,484.69 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 15,346$7,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,410.8 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…6ac6backed MOUZ | 47c | 13,596$6,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,147.03 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed MOUZ | 51c | 7,356$3,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,631.82 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ | 49c | 7,006$3,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,541.56 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ | 62c | 4,894$3,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,874.19 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked MOUZ | 54c | 4,758$2,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,188.57 | 338 | 50.9%172 W · 166 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…be8cbacked MOUZ | 53c | 4,696$2,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,206.95 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6304…e570backed MOUZ | 51c | 4,540$2,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,226.48 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Natus Vincere | 51c | 3,885$1,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,976.84 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Natus Vincere | 67c | 3,000$2,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 2,500$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed MOUZ | 55c | 2,308$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.09 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b48…4705backed MOUZ | 52c | 2,207$1,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.42 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +30%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22d0…6293backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 2,121$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.24 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 2,084$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.31 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa55e…c136backed MOUZ | 58c | 1,839$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.98 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 1,794$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.18 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe612…abc9backed Natus Vincere | 21c | 1,740$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.55 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 1,495$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.69 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -10.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…55e8backed MOUZ | 50c | 1,408$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked MOUZ | 52c | 1,339$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.67 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed MOUZ | 53c | 1,323$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.79 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed MOUZ | 54c | 1,005$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.25 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f1…f95fbacked MOUZ | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked MOUZ | 72c | 924.06$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256 | 119 | 60.5%72 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked MOUZ | 49c | 897.96$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.96 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed MOUZ | 48c | 770.83$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.4 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 711$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.74 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed MOUZ | 53c | 700$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed MOUZ | 53c | 700$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…96c8backed MOUZ | 52c | 648.09$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.09 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ba…faecbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 642.62$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.31 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed MOUZ | 52c | 626.92$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.92 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed MOUZ | 40c | 557.45$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.72 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed MOUZ | 56c | 534.66$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.66 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a2…7e3ebacked MOUZ | 54c | 523.85$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.97 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed MOUZ | 26c | 506.1$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.01 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked MOUZ | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ac…63bcbacked Natus Vincere | 11c | 437.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Natus Vincere | 53c | 375.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked MOUZ | 42c | 366.39$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.74 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563b…774bbacked Natus Vincere | 56c | 359.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed MOUZ | 57c | 281.75$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.15 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 273.24$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.67 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd855…c823backed MOUZ | 33c | 243.81$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.81 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Natus Vincere | 56c | 239.33$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.61 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb027…888fbacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 207.13$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked MOUZ | 53c | 205.08$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.39 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…7c23backed MOUZ | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 341 | 54.5%186 W · 155 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 196.67$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…869bbacked MOUZ | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2b…adcfbacked MOUZ | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4a…4e5ebacked MOUZ | 52c | 178.51$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.51 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…9c2fbacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 177.13$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.02 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0b…ed1abacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 175.92$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed MOUZ | 52c | 170$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed MOUZ | 27c | 167.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.2 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed MOUZ | 65c | 154.51$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed MOUZ | 49c | 151.91$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9d…4ad7backed MOUZ | 52c | 139.07$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…e0d7backed MOUZ | 54c | 133.33$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.33 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed MOUZ | 51c | 131$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…67c5backed MOUZ | 40c | 130.03$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad2…6fe3backed Natus Vincere | 33c | 130$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…50d6backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 128.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked MOUZ | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 353 | 70%247 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Natus Vincere | 80c | 121.78$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.41 | 80 | 66.3%53 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed MOUZ | 53c | 118.05$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.07 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Natus Vincere | 15c | 100.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Natus Vincere | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb10…bdd3backed MOUZ | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked MOUZ | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…dacbbacked MOUZ | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed MOUZ | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 224 | 53.1%119 W · 105 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 91.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…6a3dbacked MOUZ | 60c | 91.04$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…dd82backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed MOUZ | 50c | 77.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.74 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…a54cbacked Natus Vincere | 41c | 75.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…b518backed MOUZ | 57c | 73.12$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3e73backed MOUZ | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Natus Vincere | 45c | 62.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Natus Vincere | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 55.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Natus Vincere | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 236 | 50.4%119 W · 117 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18dd…6bf2backed MOUZ | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked MOUZ | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…873bbacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 405 | 39.3%159 W · 246 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked MOUZ | 53c | 47.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaac2…df3abacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 46.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf938…1249backed MOUZ | 76c | 45.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 173 | 60.7%105 W · 68 L | -13.6wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b7…fd5ebacked MOUZ | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…5d10backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 41.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked Natus Vincere | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…4108backed MOUZ | 60c | 39.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…4a81backed MOUZ | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…1765backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 30.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.