Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c334129b468cb39cac054197eb4e7a4c9235710dd84efe9fa8cb915504dc994
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof Natus Vincere, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ | 66c | 1,367$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.83 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 29c | 1,231$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.35 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere | 47c | 865.47$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.57 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 745.06$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.52 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Natus Vincere | 41c | 696.68$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.71 | 399 | 36.8%147 W · 252 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed MOUZ | 64c | 638.7$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.7 | 234 | 65%152 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8523…1c9fbacked Natus Vincere | 15c | 623.47$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.52 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -10.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5388…4d5abacked Natus Vincere | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 218 | 47.2%103 W · 115 L | +16.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x563b…774bbacked MOUZ | 68c | 446.55$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.55 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2b…adcfbacked MOUZ | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…869bbacked MOUZ | 67c | 328.51$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.71 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed MOUZ | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed MOUZ | 73c | 295$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.65 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 293.67$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.72 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x217f…5d10backed Natus Vincere | 21c | 240$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…68d2backed MOUZ | 69c | 189.48$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 179 | 50.3%90 W · 89 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Natus Vincere | 23c | 183$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf2…29d6backed MOUZ | 62c | 161.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758f…dfb7backed MOUZ | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 346 | 67.9%235 W · 111 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61be…7ce5backed Natus Vincere | 8c | 135$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4a…4e5ebacked Natus Vincere | 39c | 116.71$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked MOUZ | 61c | 109.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d60…be72backed MOUZ | 62c | 106.45$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…51edbacked MOUZ | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b7…fd5ebacked MOUZ | 53c | 92.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…e0d7backed MOUZ | 74c | 81.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb62e…543bbacked Natus Vincere | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad2…6fe3backed Natus Vincere | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…dacbbacked Natus Vincere | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…873bbacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 405 | 39.3%159 W · 246 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…e041backed MOUZ | 75c | 38.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 555 | 61.8%343 W · 212 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…4bebbacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x047a…941ebacked MOUZ | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 236 | 40.7%96 W · 140 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed MOUZ | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 240 | 26.7%64 W · 176 L | -30.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked MOUZ | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked Natus Vincere | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3)MOUZ won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.