TailMyPicks

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Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Jenz vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nemiga Gamingof Team Jenz, Nemiga Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,231
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$106,848

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,231 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Jenz34c9,995$3,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,444.781,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf28e…e305backed Nemiga Gaming59c9,582$5,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,941.86757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa05e…4394backed Nemiga Gaming59c5,234$3,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,135.111163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04d2…4850backed Nemiga Gaming64c4,464$2,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,626.812548%12 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c1b…ca93backed Nemiga Gaming51c4,459$2,263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,196.442161.9%13 W · 8 L+5.0wins+0.24per pick38cpaid+40.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1d6f…789bbacked Team Jenz48c3,142$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,506.794742.6%20 W · 27 L-5.2wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-26%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Team Jenz42c2,714$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.9889238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6155…808ebacked Team Jenz36c2,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7206440.6%26 W · 38 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Team Jenz45c1,911$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.1469132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Jenz17c1,475$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.4689938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x34a8…8c5cbacked Nemiga Gaming64c1,200$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.33560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…1044backed Nemiga Gaming58c950.19$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.614052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0993…525fbacked Team Jenz39c877.04$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.511844.4%8 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…a5edbacked Team Jenz45c777$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.6540644.6%181 W · 225 L+0.8wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked Team Jenz13c750$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9770052.3%366 W · 334 L+47.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c81…5518backed Team Jenz48c641.39$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.945437%20 W · 34 L-7.1wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed Team Jenz36c539.9$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.3547548%228 W · 247 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Team Jenz41c536.41$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.268040%32 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked Nemiga Gaming64c511$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.9665863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba57…1e84backed Team Jenz36c500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18015050.7%76 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf868…3b45backed Team Jenz37c477.22$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.51650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+47.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa24a…8382backed Team Jenz39c472$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.511330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-40%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x230b…d318backed Team Jenz45c459.95$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.76955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46e4…c6dabacked Team Jenz39c371.05$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.751936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d40…dd57backed Team Jenz44c361.79$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.193132.3%10 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Team Jenz21c360.9$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.531,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed Team Jenz49c320.16$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.8812646%58 W · 68 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Nemiga Gaming73c300$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8179959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x32a9…fc3fbacked Team Jenz5c299.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154325.6%11 W · 32 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick22cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xedc3…f923backed Team Jenz50c290.88$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.13256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed Nemiga Gaming65c276.61$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.8158356.8%331 W · 252 L+28.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Team Jenz19c263.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5059556.6%337 W · 258 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Team Jenz23c256.71$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9291553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc269…7841backed Team Jenz43c255.64$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1093228.1%9 W · 23 L-5.9wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-42.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Team Jenz17c250$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.550247.6%239 W · 263 L+31.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07df…9f0cbacked Team Jenz49c241.24$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.46259.7%37 W · 25 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+27.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Team Jenz41c239.91$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3368345.8%313 W · 370 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…15edbacked Nemiga Gaming65c219.3$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.9588166.7%588 W · 293 L+76.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3e3b…be27backed Team Jenz12c215.27$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8321047.6%100 W · 110 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9688…fd45backed Team Jenz50c211$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.124138.6%93 W · 148 L-18.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Nemiga Gaming65c197.33$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0752046.5%242 W · 278 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc925…6d24backed Team Jenz18c183.51$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.241632.7%136 W · 280 L-37.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-41.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5b55…cbc6backed Team Jenz50c180.32$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.556439.1%25 W · 39 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Team Jenz18c163.87$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.353538.5%206 W · 329 L-26.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Jenz43c155.73$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.591,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1f2…05a2backed Nemiga Gaming66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.523100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x886d…3470backed Team Jenz8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Jenz30c139$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.271,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9f4…c1e4backed Team Jenz39c134.74$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9542639.4%168 W · 258 L-39.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x66ed…d321backed Team Jenz36c125$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4534045.9%156 W · 184 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb66e…ffc2backed Team Jenz49c121.84$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.74257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+28.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd7ee…09a6backed Team Jenz43c118.5$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.951421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-31.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed Nemiga Gaming64c115$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.430452.3%159 W · 145 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed Nemiga Gaming65c108.45$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4815648.7%76 W · 80 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa425…52fabacked Team Jenz36c104$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.44944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Team Jenz35c103.69$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8358943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ef2…44c9backed Team Jenz46c103.54$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.634117.1%7 W · 34 L-9.1wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-54%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x912f…b25bbacked Team Jenz28c100.94$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf795…5e34backed Team Jenz12c99.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123727%10 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07f9…1513backed Team Jenz49c91.83$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4515147.7%72 W · 79 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d9a…d10fbacked Team Jenz17c89.43$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.211445.6%52 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Team Jenz27c88.51$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.942146.6%196 W · 225 L-1.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Team Jenz30c87.23$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0710833.3%36 W · 72 L-13.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-46.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Team Jenz36c87$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6156945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabd9…dc3abacked Team Jenz31c86.88$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8818733.2%62 W · 125 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x19d0…2101backed Team Jenz40c61.95$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257054.3%38 W · 32 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bed…5cd6backed Team Jenz49c60.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.855950.8%30 W · 29 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Team Jenz27c60.61$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1619449%95 W · 99 L+11.8wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Jenz20c58.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.471,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Team Jenz38c55.16$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1781345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Nemiga Gaming50c54$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2711649.1%57 W · 59 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xff77…b6b4backed Team Jenz58c50.08$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296152.5%32 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x072e…df3abacked Team Jenz50c50.01$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.01933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c55…84cebacked Team Jenz52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269244.6%41 W · 51 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed Nemiga Gaming78c48.97$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.616256.8%92 W · 70 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x733c…521bbacked Team Jenz24c47.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.266154.1%33 W · 28 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x77de…e67abacked Team Jenz25c47.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7514848%71 W · 77 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59d8…ad87backed Team Jenz46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f0c…a691backed Nemiga Gaming46c41$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.146547.7%31 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ce…bf7abacked Nemiga Gaming65c33.2$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6210766.4%71 W · 36 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f4…9626backed Team Jenz45c32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.52352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.