Mls · resolved market
Will Austin FC vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda493ef0810034cda3beaa3e94dd044429176ebb0b5b38f07e8be565e1de3079
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 1,530$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.96 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 72c | 1,123$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.39 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 73c | 969.04$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 27c | 866.16$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.86 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 15c | 823.5$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.48 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 4c | 811.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 24c | 278.92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.22 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed No | 72c | 221.24$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.7 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 78c | 178.15$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 72c | 171.42$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Yes | 25c | 121.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 72c | 119$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 74c | 117.95$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Yes | 26c | 114.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Yes | 27c | 114.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed No | 72c | 79.46$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 28c | 67.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Yes | 23c | 64.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 24c | 61.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 79c | 51.17$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 72c | 50.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked No | 72c | 39.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 71c | 32.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed No | 75c | 18.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 73c | 17.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 72c | 14.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Austin FC vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw?this page
- Will Austin FC win on 2026-04-25?Yes won
- Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-04-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.