Mls · resolved market
Will Austin FC win on 2026-04-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82acc93aaced24e7e0c1ac4723cfbb20d4d3ef338b656161c880bd72414fa464
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,902
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,364
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,902 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes | 33c | 19,384$6,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,987.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 53c | 6,888$3,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,647.8 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 67c | 6,099$4,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,085.92 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed No | 67c | 4,478$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000.01 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed No | 67c | 3,930$2,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,633.11 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 9c | 3,245$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.36 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 34c | 3,137$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,070.58 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 67c | 2,572$1,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,711.17 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 52c | 2,108$1,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.43 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed No | 67c | 1,733$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.94 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 31c | 1,115$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.7 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 72c | 806.53$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.67 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 66c | 499.98$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.99 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 67c | 495.75$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.15 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 51c | 481.67$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.02 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked No | 13c | 473.9$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed No | 58c | 425.99$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.07 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed No | 64c | 412.48$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.99 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Yes | 69c | 397.38$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.63 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 62c | 379.15$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.08 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 41c | 348.28$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.74 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 64c | 269.5$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.23 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed No | 67c | 253.64$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.94 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 67c | 248$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.5 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…7cacbacked No | 63c | 222.72$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.03 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 37c | 202.57$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.62 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 45c | 188.18$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.09 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 37c | 175$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 64c | 152.76$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.81 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 12c | 150.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked No | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 19c | 136.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 25c | 132.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 67c | 120$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 29c | 117.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 38c | 114.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 61c | 97.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 74c | 90.57$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 65c | 75.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 43c | 73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 64c | 70.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 65c | 67.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 42c | 61.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 33c | 58.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +12.0wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +83%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 52c | 54.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b3…13edbacked No | 28c | 53.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 57c | 52.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…675cbacked Yes | 42c | 50.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 67c | 50.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Yes | 34c | 49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 37c | 47.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 55c | 47.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed No | 38c | 45.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed No | 41c | 42.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf19b…4db7backed No | 68c | 41.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed No | 67c | 40.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -11.4wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked No | 62c | 39.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Yes | 34c | 37.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf986…6833backed Yes | 43c | 32.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed No | 65c | 29.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…ae21backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -59%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 67c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 53c | 27.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…56e5backed Yes | 73c | 26.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed Yes | 76c | 25.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 68c | 24.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 59c | 23.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 52c | 22.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…9d28backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 67c | 19.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 63c | 18.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed No | 65c | 17.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Austin FC win on 2026-04-25?this page
- Will Austin FC vs. Houston Dynamo end in a draw?No won
- Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-04-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.