CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda4daa73de437deb810c4719da5c2f9bc220f68e06ab12ab1777053121de6800
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- HOTUof Heroic, HOTU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked HOTU | 62c | 2,224$1,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.42 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed HOTU | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.99 | 1,081 | 50.9%550 W · 531 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a57…7b0abacked Heroic | 42c | 1,784$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.08 | 224 | 49.6%111 W · 113 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed HOTU | 61c | 1,600$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.96 | 786 | 39.4%310 W · 476 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked HOTU | 60c | 1,332$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.09 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Heroic | 38c | 728.95$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277 | 1,623 | 44.9%728 W · 895 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…3543backed Heroic | 41c | 622.31$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.21 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed HOTU | 62c | 505.26$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.3 | 597 | 55.4%331 W · 266 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Heroic | 40c | 505$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Heroic | 38c | 483.01$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.54 | 247 | 46.6%115 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Heroic | 38c | 444$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.72 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Heroic | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 371 | 49.6%184 W · 187 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Heroic | 38c | 387.64$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.3 | 1,038 | 39.9%414 W · 624 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed HOTU | 62c | 355.15$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.96 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed Heroic | 39c | 310.86$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.24 | 387 | 39.5%153 W · 234 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed HOTU | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 991 | 48.3%479 W · 512 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea7e…f207backed Heroic | 38c | 265$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Heroic | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Heroic | 54c | 225.93$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 1,365 | 66.3%905 W · 460 L | +76.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Heroic | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 148 | 20.3%30 W · 118 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…35f7backed Heroic | 39c | 192.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed HOTU | 61c | 163.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…1af6backed Heroic | 39c | 153.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe41c…afabbacked Heroic | 40c | 123.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 496 | 51.2%254 W · 242 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Heroic | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 807 | 40.3%325 W · 482 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…e1b9backed Heroic | 41c | 119.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Heroic | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 545 | 43.5%237 W · 308 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03a9…77e3backed Heroic | 39c | 96.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Heroic | 39c | 92.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 489 | 48.9%239 W · 250 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Heroic | 39c | 90$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked HOTU | 59c | 83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.93 | 447 | 47.2%211 W · 236 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed HOTU | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3c…9f22backed Heroic | 39c | 79.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa7…8332backed Heroic | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2175…4b33backed Heroic | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62cd…7b19backed Heroic | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed HOTU | 60c | 49.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 677 | 50.2%340 W · 337 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78fb…56bcbacked Heroic | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0789…f7adbacked Heroic | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a2…362bbacked Heroic | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7488…9cfbbacked Heroic | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ea…fa08backed Heroic | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe91c…0cf9backed Heroic | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22d4…2613backed Heroic | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd1…6fe4backed Heroic | 39c | 37.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bff…cb72backed Heroic | 39c | 35.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Heroic | 48c | 33.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 2,214 | 47.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked HOTU | 50c | 30.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked HOTU | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 210 | 60%126 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…d6a1backed Heroic | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 398 | 40.5%161 W · 237 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Heroic (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Group BHOTU won
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Heroic - Map 1 WinnerHeroic won
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Heroic - Map 2 WinnerHOTU won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.