CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6753688543f60fd51c2129706d588822236dcc53f2d6c7deb5b35400ccd5aaa5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heroicof HOTU, Heroic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed HOTU | 8c | 3,865$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.85 | 2,664 | 30.8%820 W · 1,844 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a62…fc1abacked HOTU | 15c | 3,000$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.49 | 138 | 34.8%48 W · 90 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked HOTU | 32c | 2,220$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 244 | 38.9%95 W · 149 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0f…9f36backed HOTU | 24c | 964.4$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.87 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked HOTU | 11c | 825.43$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.07 | 3,544 | 29.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L | -289.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed Heroic | 67c | 745.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.93 | 1,178 | 54.5%642 W · 536 L | -36.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed HOTU | 21c | 738.43$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.55 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed HOTU | 24c | 701.51$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.58 | 4,238 | 49.2%2,085 W · 2,153 L | +60.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked HOTU | 21c | 694.65$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.22 | 3,259 | 50.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L | +98.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Heroic | 66c | 653.56$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.07 | 209 | 46.9%98 W · 111 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed HOTU | 34c | 653.56$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.07 | 318 | 43.1%137 W · 181 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked HOTU | 20c | 522.2$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.12 | 5,034 | 37.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L | -260.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked HOTU | 25c | 511$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.45 | 3,236 | 51.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L | +88.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed Heroic | 64c | 510$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.6 | 521 | 50.3%262 W · 259 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked HOTU | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2,223 | 47.5%1,056 W · 1,167 L | -5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Heroic | 76c | 450$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.13 | 2,365 | 45.4%1,074 W · 1,291 L | -58.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Heroic | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 225 | 54.2%122 W · 103 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b96…4389backed Heroic | 65c | 400$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 385 | 57.1%220 W · 165 L | -17.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked HOTU | 8c | 394$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 3,949 | 36.5%1,443 W · 2,506 L | -201.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…893cbacked Heroic | 62c | 294.6$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.95 | 393 | 42.5%167 W · 226 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59cb…57d1backed HOTU | 35c | 281.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52f8…ad19backed HOTU | 26c | 188.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Heroic | 76c | 163.83$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 2,397 | 42.7%1,023 W · 1,374 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked HOTU | 11c | 150.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1967…30b5backed Heroic | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 294 | 47.3%139 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb7…a3cdbacked Heroic | 66c | 117.91$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…8063backed HOTU | 37c | 110.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -8.2wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…0950backed Heroic | 76c | 105.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed HOTU | 33c | 96.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 2,092 | 41.6%871 W · 1,221 L | -50.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked HOTU | 11c | 90$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 2,530 | 34.6%876 W · 1,654 L | -193.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed HOTU | 16c | 81.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 4,099 | 51%2,091 W · 2,008 L | +74.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9051…32d2backed Heroic | 76c | 79.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…dbe6backed Heroic | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 375 | 49.1%184 W · 191 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Heroic | 76c | 69.07$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 573 | 58.8%337 W · 236 L | +16.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…2afabacked HOTU | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 415 | 16.6%69 W · 346 L | -36.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked HOTU | 28c | 50.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 531 | 45.4%241 W · 290 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed Heroic | 74c | 46.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 1,008 | 69.3%699 W · 309 L | +152.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked HOTU | 33c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 447 | 47.2%211 W · 236 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed HOTU | 33c | 31.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 702 | 42.2%296 W · 406 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Heroic | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 821 | 42.5%349 W · 472 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed Heroic | 62c | 24.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 225 | 52.9%119 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e5…cc65backed Heroic | 64c | 19.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 223 | 46.2%103 W · 120 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Heroic | 74c | 17.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 4,754 | 43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Heroic - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Heroic (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries Group BHOTU won
- Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Heroic - Map 2 WinnerHOTU won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5)HOTU won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.