Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda553c4e0075bd042602526663320d94652324827e61ae7f3a865aeaa5b4be3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,665
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,665 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 34c | 909.62$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.15 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 36c | 849.08$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.93 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 41c | 558.14$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.53 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 335.4$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.35 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 47c | 200.2$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.78 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 65c | 121.01$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 120.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 67c | 114$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 108$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed No | 64c | 107$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 58c | 95.7$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.82 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 64c | 95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 84.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed No | 66c | 79.74$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 55c | 75.63$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.23 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…7d3cbacked Yes | 40c | 67.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 46c | 66.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 60c | 59.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8530…b28cbacked Yes | 44c | 58.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 47c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 37c | 51.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c2…c077backed Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed No | 55c | 49.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 36c | 39.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae5…7c01backed Yes | 36c | 37.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 52c | 35.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 52c | 35.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 192 | 59.4%114 W · 78 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 51c | 28.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 37c | 27.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 54c | 26.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 67c | 23.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 61c | 21.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb430…efc9backed No | 67c | 20.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 20.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5c…767bbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 19.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 62c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.