TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs OG - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, OG
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$713,431
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$871,697

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $713,431 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 417 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed OG49c91,453$44,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,618.621,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c03…8e6ebacked OG30c29,545$8,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,762.242050%10 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4aec…4ce9backed Nigma Galaxy70c23,521$16,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,034.3230667.3%206 W · 100 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed Nigma Galaxy50c20,000$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,00047646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xde82…705dbacked Nigma Galaxy48c20,000$9,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,4004942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Nigma Galaxy56c17,187$9,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,615.989741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked OG52c15,810$8,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,282.8750850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Nigma Galaxy53c14,642$7,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,923.051,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Nigma Galaxy51c14,609$7,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,145.4969644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked Nigma Galaxy52c14,146$7,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,802.9432549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Nigma Galaxy49c14,000$6,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,16036041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Nigma Galaxy55c11,700$6,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,281.7780256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed OG45c11,115$5,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,054.1928044.3%124 W · 156 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf23c…9f81backed Nigma Galaxy56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,399.972676.9%20 W · 6 L+5.8wins+0.22per pick55cpaid+41.9%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Nigma Galaxy29c9,583$2,779 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,803.4645139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Nigma Galaxy47c9,090$4,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,854.225446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7414…72a3backed Nigma Galaxy50c9,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5003633.3%12 W · 24 L-5.8wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-24.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Nigma Galaxy39c8,822$3,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,414.521,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d2…629cbacked OG55c8,750$4,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,820.811643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked OG45c8,394$3,818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,818.0750347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked OG49c7,572$3,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,741.361,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked OG58c7,358$4,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,276.5953451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56a6…e5aebacked Nigma Galaxy49c7,350$3,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7173164.5%20 W · 11 L+5.4wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+58.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x23cb…80d0backed OG50c7,236$3,599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,59922853.1%121 W · 107 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84fb…675ebacked Nigma Galaxy49c7,119$3,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,630.685834.5%20 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x818b…c5ebbacked OG55c6,514$3,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,597.839658.3%56 W · 40 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f5…f3b5backed Nigma Galaxy58c6,407$3,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,721.6418351.9%95 W · 88 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Nigma Galaxy48c6,000$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,12041944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde24…4dedbacked OG56c5,884$3,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,287.6219853%105 W · 93 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Nigma Galaxy50c5,596$2,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,782.8171143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked OG47c5,000$2,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,355.581,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x63bc…4179backed Nigma Galaxy27c5,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6508834.1%30 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eea…1a4cbacked Nigma Galaxy75c4,989$3,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25812858.6%75 W · 53 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd61a…708bbacked OG53c4,831$2,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,580.234151.2%21 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b60…edbebacked Nigma Galaxy50c4,200$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1004837.5%18 W · 30 L-7.9wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-31.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xedfc…b7b1backed Nigma Galaxy51c4,129$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,029.098348.2%40 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc156…f76cbacked OG67c3,613$2,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,403.8516547.9%79 W · 86 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked OG74c3,602$2,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,662.554058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Nigma Galaxy27c3,426$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,515.0347650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53b2…9f96backed OG45c3,200$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.838658.1%50 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked OG58c3,099$1,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,806.733867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed Nigma Galaxy50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50030452.3%159 W · 145 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Nigma Galaxy50c2,977$1,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,488.2872035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Nigma Galaxy56c2,802$1,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.5761456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0e1…b9b4backed OG55c2,754$1,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5209852%51 W · 47 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed OG75c2,616$1,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,962.3133453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked OG59c2,560$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,503.9979859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3901…8f65backed OG50c2,500$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2503743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed OG51c2,472$1,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.8736343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked OG49c2,405$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.7335850.6%181 W · 177 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5997…0beebacked Nigma Galaxy43c2,364$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,353.543839.5%15 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x56ff…81a0backed OG61c2,320$1,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,408.376141%25 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked OG40c2,304$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.3816746.1%77 W · 90 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed Nigma Galaxy48c2,246$1,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.9121146.9%99 W · 112 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbeef…92b7backed OG62c2,200$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,364.5215054.7%82 W · 68 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb0c…5f05backed Nigma Galaxy55c2,156$1,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.012245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x332b…af19backed OG45c2,110$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.51250%6 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b13…0263backed OG66c2,085$1,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,368.875164.7%33 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick58cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed OG49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98053758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Nigma Galaxy55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90057449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x081c…5de0backed OG14c2,000$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.163619.4%7 W · 29 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-45.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed OG49c1,975$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.821,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf424…9723backed OG53c1,870$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.54812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick34cpaid-80.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc444…416cbacked OG55c1,782$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98017550.9%89 W · 86 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked OG58c1,750$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.0333845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe46d…7e4dbacked Nigma Galaxy57c1,611$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.817055.7%39 W · 31 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b08…053bbacked OG78c1,600$1,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2482138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x47e8…efdcbacked Nigma Galaxy29c1,594$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.9419456.2%109 W · 85 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x08b8…e7dabacked Nigma Galaxy55c1,562$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.8631055.2%171 W · 139 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked OG49c1,541$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.761,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed OG54c1,500$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81053652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed OG47c1,476$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.5147748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x274f…971abacked Nigma Galaxy57c1,423$814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.7714657.5%84 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a01…c89ebacked OG64c1,422$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.7728251.8%146 W · 136 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd63…050fbacked OG44c1,359$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.83951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a56…10f5backed OG45c1,357$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.2218950.8%96 W · 93 L+10.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d01…27cbbacked Nigma Galaxy56c1,332$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.866744.8%30 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb69…cfd1backed OG70c1,307$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92030356.4%171 W · 132 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…7275backed Nigma Galaxy37c1,300$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.996050%30 W · 30 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+20.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked OG69c1,298$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90012060.8%73 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd99b…50bebacked Nigma Galaxy50c1,252$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.27142.3%30 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6155…808ebacked OG40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006440.6%26 W · 38 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked OG43c1,200$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51656542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc186…e96ebacked OG50c1,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003951.3%20 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6e9…caedbacked OG50c1,200$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002642.3%11 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-22.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9bb7…7028backed OG42c1,190$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006839.7%27 W · 41 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Nigma Galaxy44c1,189$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.5337745.9%173 W · 204 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Nigma Galaxy40c1,162$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.9835758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x96a8…6107backed Nigma Galaxy54c1,154$618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.447439.2%29 W · 45 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Nigma Galaxy46c1,115$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.8789749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x48ba…d81dbacked Nigma Galaxy49c1,100$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.9956343.9%247 W · 316 L-1.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcb8…6b51backed OG54c1,084$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.9442053.6%225 W · 195 L+16.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadea…b96dbacked OG19c1,075$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.91731.4%1 W · 72 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick11cpaid-91.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed OG21c1,071$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.9124636.6%90 W · 156 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Nigma Galaxy48c1,063$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.351,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35f8…daa1backed Nigma Galaxy51c1,042$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.05560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dbd…c385backed OG39c1,029$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40022665%147 W · 79 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7355…824cbacked OG48c1,013$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.425550.9%28 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8430…3961backed Nigma Galaxy70c996.61$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.6130356.4%171 W · 132 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7876…a162backed OG27c995.33$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.142250%11 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.