Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Ruud vs Fonseca
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb82165cc2b21f1418b826e9ef7bd279c88e3c70556cf87ef21e907934d72238
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fonsecaof Ruud, Fonseca
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Fonseca | 36c | 1,331$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.56 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Ruud | 61c | 850$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.5 | 747 | 43.6%326 W · 421 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc5…d36ebacked Fonseca | 61c | 357$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.17 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Ruud | 47c | 303$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.41 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Ruud | 39c | 258$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66e…3430backed Ruud | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Ruud | 54c | 220.37$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…d9b2backed Fonseca | 53c | 211.5$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a7…e8d3backed Fonseca | 53c | 207.93$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.73 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…56a1backed Ruud | 49c | 205.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5e…8819backed Fonseca | 53c | 194.34$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.34 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Fonseca | 34c | 175$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.79 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…f8acbacked Ruud | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 45.3%53 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Fonseca | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc547…c570backed Ruud | 38c | 115.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 678 | 38.3%260 W · 418 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Ruud | 55c | 112.4$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Fonseca | 45c | 96.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Fonseca | 51c | 93.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Ruud | 46c | 90.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Fonseca | 46c | 70.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ruud | 62c | 65.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Ruud | 47c | 59.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…d5dabacked Fonseca | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 519 | 42.6%221 W · 298 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Ruud | 65c | 57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa69…ff71backed Fonseca | 36c | 56.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Fonseca | 41c | 37.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 950 | 50.1%476 W · 474 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Ruud | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Ruud | 47c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 690 | 47%324 W · 366 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Fonseca | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…8f07backed Ruud | 55c | 31.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…1422backed Fonseca | 53c | 29.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Ruud vs Fonsecathis page
- Casper Ruud vs. Joao Fonseca: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- National Bank Open: Casper Ruud vs Joao FonsecaJoao Fonseca won
- Ruud vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Set 2 Winner: Ruud vs FonsecaFonseca won
- Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Ruud (+1.5)Fonseca won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.