Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb82d6865166bdcfd1ec43c7b04d227ee9b5736062de7bc2602bd12515f56535
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 40c | 387.2$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.01 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9980…a036backed No | 6c | 261.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 42c | 187$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 160.38$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 131$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked Yes | 57c | 127.73$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.18 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 126.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 125.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 51c | 119.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 118.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52fe…c258backed Yes | 57c | 107.22$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 102.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ec…8d7cbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 43c | 90.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 43c | 88.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 60c | 81.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aeb…f1abbacked Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…2420backed Yes | 59c | 80$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 44c | 79.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 51c | 78.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 58c | 70.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…5b16backed No | 48c | 62.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 40c | 61.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 39c | 61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2157…923cbacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 47c | 49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked Yes | 51c | 47.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 48c | 41.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 51c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 50c | 28.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 61c | 26.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 49c | 21.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 28?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 28?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 28?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.