Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb8d435ef353677261502f0979597dec02209e85c2b1f5209532a67fb9ac7424
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a67…1b53backed Yes | 0c | 2,435$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 2c | 2,150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,842$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad2…5b01backed Yes | 3c | 1,388$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 7c | 1,012$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.51 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…69a1backed No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 18c | 393.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 13c | 379.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 341.48$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf270…3c46backed Yes | 13c | 327.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 275.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x521e…a47bbacked Yes | 14c | 250.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 13c | 209$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 18c | 203.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 14c | 183$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 28c | 181.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 175.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 21c | 174.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 135$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 79c | 126.27$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 10c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 80c | 114$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 15c | 113.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 30c | 107.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 105$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 27c | 104.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…5aebbacked Yes | 19c | 104.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 104.08$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa30f…4da6backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 211 | 32.2%68 W · 143 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 24c | 92.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…9899backed Yes | 18c | 82.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbadf…120dbacked Yes | 17c | 74.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 33c | 64.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 63.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 43c | 59.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 21c | 58.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 49c | 57.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 56.16$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 27c | 53.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 24c | 50.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…a0b0backed Yes | 31c | 48.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 80c | 47.14$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 39c | 41.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 27c | 39.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…7980backed No | 67c | 36.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 29c | 34.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 34.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 28.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…9b09backed No | 76c | 26.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 68c | 20.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 80c | 19.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5a…cd07backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0f…229abacked No | 80c | 12.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.52 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 80cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.