Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec3bee8aba4ccaaed18b9210d047fb064bfd9a9193365c152eb5adae394fce8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,805$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.81 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad2…5b01backed Yes | 14c | 1,945$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.39 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x143c…487ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,182$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 914.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 628.72$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 65c | 470.22$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.65 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…cb18backed Yes | 8c | 445.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 3c | 430.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…65d5backed Yes | 6c | 338.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 6c | 293.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 20c | 288.06$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.52 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 26c | 272.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 78c | 266.97$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.83 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 69c | 235.09$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.9 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 36c | 217.68$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.51 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 59c | 215.85$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.14 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 208.58$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 63c | 204.09$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.96 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 11c | 204.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 202.36$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbadf…120dbacked Yes | 6c | 197.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 41c | 185.43$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.77 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73ae…3b52backed Yes | 22c | 180.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 179.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 18c | 173.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00ff…aa2abacked Yes | 6c | 161$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…c2d1backed No | 80c | 150.35$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 10c | 147.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 136.92$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 60c | 134.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.15 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 55c | 134$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 8c | 131.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 75c | 130.21$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 54c | 126.73$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 29c | 124.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 28c | 123.86$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…1b53backed Yes | 41c | 123.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 100.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked Yes | 21c | 84.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 120 | 52.5%63 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 75c | 81.52$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 23c | 71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Yes | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 57c | 48.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a4…dbc9backed Yes | 25c | 42.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe978…ab29backed No | 68c | 42.36$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9217…076abacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 40c | 38.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 30c | 36.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 62c | 35.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed No | 37c | 33.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e1…7521backed Yes | 65c | 30.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28fe…1640backed No | 66c | 30.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +7.3wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed No | 49c | 29.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 39c | 28.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa110…9b09backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 63c | 23.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 43c | 23.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 66c | 22.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 54c | 21.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 69c | 21.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 68c | 20.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8091…3178backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb7…2ebbbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 59c | 18.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fd…e7dcbacked Yes | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…8be6backed Yes | 66c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.