TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,499
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,835

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,499 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x652d…46b3backed No1c2,060$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7761820.7%128 W · 490 L+36.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes41c662.23$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.132,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf325…f8e0backed Yes24c456.69$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.494047.5%19 W · 21 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick37cpaid-6.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked No25c444.67$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.3131219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes33c377.29$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.825,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No24c372.66$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.313,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed No25c342.98$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7736648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes27c319.62$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.181,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6468…a30bbacked No3c311.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No40c309.54$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.4712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes38c264.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.2117140.4%69 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No36c198.15$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.326,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No37c197$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.645,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes24c186.69$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.251,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No47c183.24$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.342,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f03…9372backed Yes30c176.78$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+66.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes78c168.95$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0824466.8%163 W · 81 L+20.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes36c163.38$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.441,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes20c162.1$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.344,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes25c156.76$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.791,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes16c144.89$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.141,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa817…95d7backed Yes31c136.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.3816934.9%59 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes16c132.02$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.967633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes17c130$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.856627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No16c129.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.272,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No75c128.24$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.7499963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b7…c718backed Yes29c119.66$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.662766.7%18 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7541…a0b0backed Yes24c118.72$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.725633.9%19 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x521e…a47bbacked Yes39c116.52$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.935733.3%19 W · 38 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes38c114.34$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.52,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No73c112.6$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.95,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes23c110.8$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.459,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes16c110$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.693034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No79c107$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.694,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes57c105.61$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6114645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No74c104.54$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.219057.9%110 W · 80 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No41c104.02$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6471159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c1c…5aebbacked Yes30c103.62$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.53666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+74.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x87ba…da46backed Yes37c100.95$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.0114635.6%52 W · 94 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7634918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5598738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1879040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8051631.6%163 W · 353 L-29.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7628742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x77d1…6d42backed Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+25.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes29c99.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9971031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba0f…9558backed Yes21c99.98$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.987237.5%27 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No77c98.6$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.312,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf136…5941backed Yes19c97.44$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.662564%16 W · 9 L+5.2wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+54.6%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No64c97.01$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.811,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes64c96.79$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4999962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No40c94.52$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.383,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No65c90.7$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.055,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes30c89.16$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.3937355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes25c87.41$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.281234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaa5c…a240backed Yes79c85.97$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9919552.8%103 W · 92 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18c9…1e8abacked Yes18c81.86$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.861968.4%13 W · 6 L+6.5wins+0.34per pick34cpaid+195.8%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes25c81.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.3434633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b3a…9096backed Yes23c77.23$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.832445.8%11 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+37.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes16c74.13$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.6322236.5%81 W · 141 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8ec…31b6backed Yes20c74.04$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.041241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+47%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2349…1646backed No17c70$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.748261.8%298 W · 184 L+43.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2a67…1b53backed Yes29c69.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.98520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No25c69.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.382,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbadf…120dbacked Yes28c69.19$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.67825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed Yes20c68.19$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.7541051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3942…39d7backed No19c66.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6429717.2%51 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes22c64.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3917831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes19c60.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.312,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes79c60.11$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3865353.4%349 W · 304 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed Yes18c59.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.1917358.4%101 W · 72 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No27c59.53$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8848919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed No69c59.25$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes59c59.03$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.21,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x59c1…12cebacked Yes30c57.45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.222835.7%10 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfaa6…c1e6backed Yes37c56.16$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.38933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9008…09f0backed Yes19c55.56$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.1411939.5%47 W · 72 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes59c53.77$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0535264.8%228 W · 124 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes37c51$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1391444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.288650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad58…7624backed Yes27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.554232.3%175 W · 367 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd372…04bebacked Yes27c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.512052.5%63 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6aa2…05fbbacked No40c49.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.673441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x531b…da26backed Yes32c46.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.9412733.1%42 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No44c44.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.563,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bf4…d969backed Yes25c44.12$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.291127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x143c…487ebacked Yes25c40.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.255831%18 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a49…59e0backed No65c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262835.7%10 W · 18 L-7.2wins-0.26per pick61cpaid-32.1%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xd5fb…b01bbacked Yes31c40$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.610434.6%36 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No41c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.461,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02a6…bdb4backed Yes76c39.69$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.69862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick72cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No79c37$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.333,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ea7…e13fbacked Yes37c33.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.255925.4%15 W · 44 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No42c33.55$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.052,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x361c…99d4backed No71c32.17$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7211965.5%78 W · 41 L-5.9wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No64c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.21,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ea8…e85cbacked Yes37c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-39.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x177b…6e61backed No66c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.712458.1%72 W · 52 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed No79c29.38$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.1368645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.