TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,297
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,838

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,297 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes1c2,571$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.021,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes29c829.53$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.018,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6468…a30bbacked Yes13c781.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes7c554.68$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.442,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b3…46febacked Yes4c449.23$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes5c393.79$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.875,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes16c299.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4934918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes7c299.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked Yes7c299.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9915923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes6c278.62$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.831219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes11c275.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8910617.9%19 W · 87 L-10.8wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-64.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c274.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b23…1bc5backed No71c259.07$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.181838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf325…f8e0backed Yes6c233.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.064047.5%19 W · 21 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick37cpaid-6.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes13c222.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No70c221.75$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6399963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdd4…0b7bbacked Yes38c219.49$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed Yes6c208.08$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0948919.2%94 W · 395 L-38.7wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5cfc…c4cebacked Yes12c207.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.531414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+32.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea55…558fbacked Yes26c199.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.361931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No76c193.89$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.692,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes8c191$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.843,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x00ff…aa2abacked Yes40c188.35$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.811258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes13c185.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8520025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ad2…5b01backed No77c183.85$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.561533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes14c170.93$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.964,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed Yes24c165.77$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.091,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes6c164.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.396073.3%20 W · 587 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-54.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cc0…1912backed Yes12c162.15$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4616116.1%26 W · 135 L-7.1wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-34.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes6c159.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1328742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No78c154.83$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5389661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed Yes14c150$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.252030%6 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23d5…3cfabacked Yes10c149.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1960%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes13c149.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2734633.8%117 W · 229 L+17.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes13c140.05$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2167633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5dd1…d33cbacked No61c139.03$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.831861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No78c138.27$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0571159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes24c137.5$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa817…95d7backed Yes12c134.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.216934.9%59 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2559…cb18backed Yes14c129.72$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2440%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No67c124.35$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.116,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes35c118.44$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.451,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb55c…04eabacked No76c117.99$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3220172.6%146 W · 55 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick76cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8dd…ec86backed No66c115.37$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.119057.9%110 W · 80 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x170c…7fe3backed No76c115.14$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.58966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+295%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaeec…3686backed Yes13c114.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4e8c…2155backed Yes27c112$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-20.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes10c104.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0843050.2%216 W · 214 L+21.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x16bf…07e5backed Yes13c101.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.57425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-63%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes35c100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3571031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba0f…9558backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217237.5%27 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes15c98.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes23c90$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2590734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No75c87.9$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.771,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbadf…120dbacked Yes19c85.89$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.57825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No68c82.5$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.598,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3bf…147fbacked Yes13c80$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes22c78.53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.441,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4760…9899backed Yes27c73.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205644.6%25 W · 31 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes14c72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0847738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4066…2407backed No76c70$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.813243.9%58 W · 74 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b07…f0ffbacked Yes17c61.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.21060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7541…a0b0backed Yes28c52.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155633.9%19 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc33a…cc98backed No76c52.58$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.625468.5%37 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f06…93c2backed No78c51.36$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.362295.5%21 W · 1 L+4.9wins+0.22per pick73cpaid+32.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.152,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6120…f1febacked Yes35c49.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2582742.8%354 W · 473 L+2.7wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No79c42.77$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.872,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c8…b823backed No77c42$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.664271.4%30 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd34c…f04cbacked No69c42$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1367336.1%243 W · 430 L-48.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x18ae…314cbacked Yes40c37.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,21129.8%361 W · 850 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc55…522bbacked Yes35c35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3517831.5%56 W · 122 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x62e1…4e25backed No75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.53557.1%20 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-16.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.84,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No77c25.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8111977.3%92 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked No75c25.33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.350860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed No60c24$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5446444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4167…f99abacked No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21,03668.6%711 W · 325 L-33.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x746d…2db5backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57467.6%50 W · 24 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick73cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No70c18.5$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.557,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x236b…9b00backed No74c17.93$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6620266.8%135 W · 67 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No77c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.684,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No72c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.279255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e58…8033backed No70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5825%2 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-63.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe14c…7266backed No76c14.8$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.55475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27c5…0d4cbacked No74c14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.6412758.3%74 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-3.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e1a…ff36backed No77c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.223773%27 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.