Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdba1a855fe5b88fd6a21e7c4c622c787982b11b487514455d4538f495a56d5fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 33c | 1,319$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.22 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 67c | 400$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 259.42$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.21 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 38c | 259.16$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 38c | 208.04$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 182.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 54c | 130.94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.87 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 101$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 40c | 100.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 99.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 40c | 90.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…3a55backed Yes | 47c | 87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 66c | 78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 15c | 77.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 75.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 70.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 37c | 65.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 37c | 65.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 60.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfb93…45bfbacked Yes | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 66c | 58.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 40c | 56.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 38c | 55.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 38c | 54.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed Yes | 37c | 52.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 39c | 52.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 59c | 49.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 64c | 43.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 39c | 38.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 58c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 58c | 34.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 63c | 34.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f10…563bbacked Yes | 41c | 32.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 88 | 35.2%31 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 32.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9973…6e40backed Yes | 35c | 32.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 36c | 31.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 70c | 28.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 56c | 26.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 61c | 25.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 42c | 24.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed Yes | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 47c | 23.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 20.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf949…b549backed No | 61c | 20.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 58c | 20.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 64c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 71c | 19.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 60c | 19.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 69c | 17.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 66c | 16.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 76c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.