NBA · resolved market
Will Lebron James be traded?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdba6293def68f632668fadc52ad32f07ed6c11e930b162a613fe1b688a2a2c5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb095…2c2ebacked Yes | 1c | 11,033$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,179$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 243 | 34.2%83 W · 160 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked Yes | 9c | 3,405$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.15 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…9460backed Yes | 4c | 3,175$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.23 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fa…196dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,125$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed Yes | 1c | 2,169$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed No | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.9 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…8edfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,889$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes | 13c | 1,211$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.43 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +5.2wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3d99…e874backed Yes | 27c | 912.5$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.17 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…f880backed Yes | 3c | 790.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 389 | 42.9%167 W · 222 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 740.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d74…06d9backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes | 2c | 620.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 185 | 18.4%34 W · 151 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68b7…c0bcbacked Yes | 13c | 399.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ed…e60abacked Yes | 30c | 333$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 153 | 16.3%25 W · 128 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…1e02backed Yes | 12c | 328.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 13c | 318$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…7946backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…b55dbacked Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf20c…42f0backed Yes | 15c | 115.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 106$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8df…5950backed Yes | 14c | 100.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bd…9cd2backed Yes | 15c | 81.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.