MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc39fa99541d506e024949930b11ba890f8fc8017d1fadc432a3327452bc8eb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Under | 51c | 496.48$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.21 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 58c | 384$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.77 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 45c | 332.08$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.23 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 36c | 300.52$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 239.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 214.32$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.46 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 57c | 171.45$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.91 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Under | 80c | 152.45$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.96 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 58c | 118$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 58c | 98$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 51c | 94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.18 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 48c | 83.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 51c | 80.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 55c | 36.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 46c | 24.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 58c | 21.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d6…18a2backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit TigersHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.