MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x605247b5c9b7165f1d66b6c72e18962be2b320ce430baeef97deaa6db4be3b1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 48c | 13,869$6,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,213.45 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 50c | 13,014$6,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,516.83 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 55c | 11,562$6,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,407.07 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 52c | 9,274$4,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,822.64 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 49c | 6,653$3,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,389.31 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 5,774$2,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,713.33 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 4,443$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920.13 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 51c | 4,130$2,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,106.12 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 57c | 3,774$2,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,628.52 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 52c | 1,720$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$894.63 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 55c | 1,690$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.6 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 52c | 1,294$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.62 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 48c | 728.99$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.07 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 52c | 640$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.8 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 53c | 600$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Over | 37c | 547.08$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.92 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 33c | 536.78$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.65 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 31c | 458$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.8 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Over | 45c | 418.71$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.29 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31fd…e144backed Under | 50c | 417.37$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.84 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 50c | 399$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.5 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Under | 62c | 379$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.98 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Over | 47c | 363.71$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.77 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 52c | 355.62$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.32 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 52c | 341$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.32 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 51c | 258.86$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.02 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 47c | 199.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.99 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…3e4dbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 182.01$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.68 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 52c | 168$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.83 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 35c | 161$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.18 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 52c | 108.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 434 | 59%256 W · 178 L | +19.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba56…10e8backed Over | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 41c | 104.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 52c | 99.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 57c | 98.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 51c | 89.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 56c | 88.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…042ebacked Under | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Under | 53c | 66.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.08 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 47c | 55.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 61c | 54.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 61c | 50.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…18c6backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 46.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 30c | 42.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…a5d7backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 32c | 36.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 48c | 30.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa79c…b036backed Under | 53c | 29.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 75c | 28.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…4e21backed Under | 53c | 27.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5b…59b8backed Under | 53c | 25.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 42c | 25.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Over | 50c | 25.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac5…0a00backed Under | 53c | 25.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf835…ec25backed Under | 53c | 25.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d04…ebdebacked Over | 47c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Under | 53c | 23.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 46c | 22.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a9…fc5dbacked Under | 53c | 22.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42d…4d66backed Under | 53c | 22.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4e…aceabacked Under | 53c | 19.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit TigersHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.