MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x584c51dbf4069125f1b87c058dcdcd1c169c79b83071f8eb15e32157b177e5b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,489
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,489 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Detroit Tigers | 62c | 13,772$8,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,538.66 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Houston Astros | 38c | 13,158$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,157.89 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Detroit Tigers | 51c | 2,585$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.35 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 53c | 2,438$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142.45 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Detroit Tigers | 59c | 2,072$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.62 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 1,911$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.24 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros | 44c | 1,639$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.88 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Houston Astros | 24c | 1,172$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.28 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Houston Astros | 41c | 850.84$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.36 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Detroit Tigers | 61c | 536$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.96 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 39c | 521.38$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.76 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Houston Astros | 41c | 519.8$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.74 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Detroit Tigers | 24c | 388$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.57 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 60c | 361.5$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.69 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Detroit Tigers | 77c | 319.69$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.04 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Houston Astros | 39c | 300$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Detroit Tigers | 36c | 270.95$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.29 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da1…f110backed Houston Astros | 41c | 245$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Houston Astros | 38c | 219.99$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.79 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Detroit Tigers | 8c | 205$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Houston Astros | 18c | 205$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.8 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 130$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Houston Astros | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Houston Astros | 38c | 126$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.12 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Houston Astros | 38c | 122.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Detroit Tigers | 61c | 114.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Houston Astros | 40c | 102.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.47 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Detroit Tigers | 61c | 96.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Houston Astros | 26c | 85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.66 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Houston Astros | 43c | 84.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.82 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Detroit Tigers | 74c | 82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros | 39c | 72.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Houston Astros | 51c | 70.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…9372backed Houston Astros | 41c | 65.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Detroit Tigers | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Detroit Tigers | 63c | 61.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Houston Astros | 38c | 59.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Houston Astros | 37c | 58.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Houston Astros | 38c | 54.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Houston Astros | 23c | 53.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Houston Astros | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Detroit Tigers | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Detroit Tigers | 60c | 47.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Houston Astros | 24c | 44.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Houston Astros | 38c | 44.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Houston Astros | 46c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Houston Astros | 42c | 37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Houston Astros | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Houston Astros | 71c | 32.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…60b6backed Houston Astros | 41c | 31.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Houston Astros | 38c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Houston Astros | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Detroit Tigers | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Detroit Tigers | 58c | 19.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Detroit Tigers | 76c | 14.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit TigersHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.