MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe376f46124ae4eac85fb427d5483365d1db75c95c8eb56200ac9d95dcecbcaa5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked No | 55c | 3,617$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.43 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 45c | 1,741$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.63 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 44c | 707.95$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.42 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 46c | 372.26$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.61 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed No | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 44c | 248$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.12 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 47c | 216.65$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.83 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Yes | 49c | 182.96$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.65 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yes | 37c | 130$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked No | 53c | 108.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 45c | 91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…a79cbacked No | 52c | 46.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Yes | 45c | 39.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4a…3026backed No | 53c | 37.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Yes | 47c | 37.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 264 | 44.3%117 W · 147 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…e73abacked Yes | 49c | 34.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11dd…ab7cbacked Yes | 49c | 32.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24c7…6365backed Yes | 49c | 31.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed4d…86c3backed No | 52c | 30.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9792…3ee7backed Yes | 49c | 30.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.36per pick | 65cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbffc…3b70backed No | 52c | 30.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8772…349ebacked Yes | 49c | 30.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…3bafbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…fb30backed No | 52c | 29.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.46per pick | 53cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31a0…85a8backed No | 52c | 29.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c1…6fc2backed Yes | 49c | 29.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…aa45backed No | 52c | 27.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…3b98backed Yes | 48c | 27.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed9c…7854backed No | 52c | 27.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2625…e320backed No | 52c | 27.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x290b…394abacked No | 52c | 27.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…abaebacked Yes | 48c | 27.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4484…eeadbacked Yes | 49c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a6…a57cbacked Yes | 48c | 26.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x192d…b95abacked No | 52c | 26.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…e0cabacked Yes | 49c | 26.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…24a8backed No | 52c | 26.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b04…95d7backed No | 52c | 26.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…8325backed Yes | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2655…77d2backed No | 52c | 25.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32c5…436cbacked Yes | 49c | 25.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e76…5025backed Yes | 48c | 25.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88fa…bb82backed No | 52c | 25.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb703…0366backed No | 52c | 25.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…f320backed Yes | 48c | 25.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…093cbacked Yes | 49c | 25.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc8…8179backed No | 52c | 25.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46be…9ce1backed Yes | 49c | 24.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…b2fcbacked Yes | 49c | 24.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa826…a0ecbacked Yes | 49c | 24.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 62cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf59e…1f1dbacked Yes | 49c | 24.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa63f…ced7backed Yes | 49c | 24.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa290…7920backed Yes | 48c | 24.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 48c | 23.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f46…9f54backed No | 52c | 23.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8404…d3f5backed No | 52c | 23.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…8ebebacked No | 52c | 23.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392f…4d67backed Yes | 49c | 23.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0762…e8c1backed Yes | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2878…8698backed No | 52c | 22.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…18b0backed No | 52c | 22.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b00…64a2backed No | 52c | 22.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…443bbacked Yes | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f91…d069backed Yes | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…6ed2backed Yes | 49c | 21.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe21b…237bbacked No | 52c | 21.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70e…bed7backed No | 52c | 21.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…a945backed Yes | 48c | 21.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae70…8194backed No | 52c | 21.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38d…d8f7backed No | 52c | 21.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cee…7599backed Yes | 48c | 21.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b36…c11fbacked No | 52c | 21.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4da…3261backed Yes | 48c | 20.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4408…0ab2backed No | 52c | 20.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d41…581fbacked Yes | 49c | 20.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigersthis page
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit TigersHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.