Lol · resolved market
LoL: Polar Squad Esports vs Kits Esports - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc5c91cc203d9e131dd3370eb287535afb1ad6ae3e93dbc6ed1ef4f51f00c701
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kits Esportsof Polar Squad Esports, Kits Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Polar Squad Esports | 17c | 2,339$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.78 | 421 | 49.2%207 W · 214 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…0af2backed Polar Squad Esports | 1c | 1,983$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9283…4277backed Kits Esports | 77c | 1,937$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.12 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Polar Squad Esports | 23c | 1,266$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.34 | 453 | 38%172 W · 281 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Polar Squad Esports | 11c | 1,199$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.46 | 131 | 37.4%49 W · 82 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Polar Squad Esports | 17c | 790.69$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.9 | 2,202 | 33.3%733 W · 1,469 L | -72.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…930fbacked Polar Squad Esports | 27c | 417.87$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.83 | 1,216 | 44.4%540 W · 676 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Polar Squad Esports | 10c | 415.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 248 | 32.3%80 W · 168 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8494…814abacked Polar Squad Esports | 23c | 402.17$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f8…7fa1backed Kits Esports | 70c | 287.28$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.28 | 777 | 46.2%359 W · 418 L | +18.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Polar Squad Esports | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 2,825 | 41.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L | -14.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8812…c41abacked Polar Squad Esports | 17c | 247.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 255 | 51.4%131 W · 124 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Kits Esports | 77c | 239.41$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 2,938 | 44.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L | -92.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…3543backed Polar Squad Esports | 27c | 213.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Polar Squad Esports | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 115 | 32.2%37 W · 78 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe22e…074bbacked Polar Squad Esports | 12c | 199.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f0…0f4cbacked Polar Squad Esports | 12c | 175$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4509…58aebacked Polar Squad Esports | 13c | 167.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 1,055 | 39.6%418 W · 637 L | -74.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4741…6af1backed Polar Squad Esports | 10c | 160$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8412…55f3backed Polar Squad Esports | 19c | 133.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Kits Esports | 73c | 132.35$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 348 | 49.1%171 W · 177 L | +11.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5819…2b4fbacked Polar Squad Esports | 26c | 132.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 505 | 50.7%256 W · 249 L | +34.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b17…d36dbacked Polar Squad Esports | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb959…859cbacked Polar Squad Esports | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0424…f722backed Kits Esports | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3b…244abacked Kits Esports | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb46…ed08backed Polar Squad Esports | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 323 | 37.2%120 W · 203 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…d102backed Kits Esports | 75c | 85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Kits Esports | 75c | 81.49$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Polar Squad Esports | 14c | 76.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1,464 | 43.4%636 W · 828 L | -32.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…8cc4backed Polar Squad Esports | 26c | 76.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 411 | 51.1%210 W · 201 L | +19.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Kits Esports | 74c | 74.47$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 746 | 37.9%283 W · 463 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Kits Esports | 79c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 1,061 | 54.7%580 W · 481 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Kits Esports | 74c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 602 | 43.4%261 W · 341 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Polar Squad Esports | 26c | 61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 200 | 36.5%73 W · 127 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Polar Squad Esports | 21c | 49.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 373 | 43.4%162 W · 211 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f56…50edbacked Kits Esports | 73c | 40.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Kits Esports | 76c | 33.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x685f…6321backed Kits Esports | 74c | 31.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Kits Esports | 70c | 30.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 354 | 43.2%153 W · 201 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…22acbacked Kits Esports | 78c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2d…6708backed Kits Esports | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Polar Squad Esports vs Kits Esports - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- LoL: Polar Squad Esports vs Kits Esports (BO3) - LRN Regular seasonKits Esports won
- LoL: Polar Squad Esports vs Kits Esports - Game 2 WinnerKits Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.