Lol · resolved market
LoL: Polar Squad Esports vs Kits Esports - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9f41dd6c69f31ff7ddcf55a7c1964ef331e20d4bdd8cca4f6ed9fa7391f8516
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kits Esportsof Polar Squad Esports, Kits Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67d3…0af2backed Polar Squad Esports | 1c | 5,055$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed Kits Esports | 78c | 1,374$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.04 | 397 | 70.3%279 W · 118 L | +30.9wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Polar Squad Esports | 22c | 1,344$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 445 | 38.2%170 W · 275 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Polar Squad Esports | 17c | 1,235$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.35 | 1,671 | 57.9%968 W · 703 L | +70.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Kits Esports | 74c | 626.46$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.27 | 2,923 | 44.5%1,300 W · 1,623 L | -91.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6f…9f0abacked Polar Squad Esports | 12c | 600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +42%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked Polar Squad Esports | 18c | 508$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.86 | 404 | 41.8%169 W · 235 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Polar Squad Esports | 17c | 423.71$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.03 | 276 | 44.9%124 W · 152 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Polar Squad Esports | 3c | 412$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 131 | 37.4%49 W · 82 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b7…fff9backed Polar Squad Esports | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 550 | 10.4%57 W · 493 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Polar Squad Esports | 30c | 375.39$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.62 | 2,187 | 33.3%729 W · 1,458 L | -71.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf2…dfa9backed Polar Squad Esports | 14c | 364.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 304 | 53.3%162 W · 142 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Polar Squad Esports | 23c | 351$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.15 | 629 | 42.4%267 W · 362 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Polar Squad Esports | 24c | 339.02$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 1,096 | 38.9%426 W · 670 L | -47.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f8…7fa1backed Kits Esports | 70c | 287.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.66 | 772 | 46.2%357 W · 415 L | +18.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Polar Squad Esports | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 2,820 | 41.4%1,167 W · 1,653 L | -14.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…3543backed Polar Squad Esports | 27c | 214.36$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Kits Esports | 70c | 200.11$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.11 | 354 | 43.2%153 W · 201 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Polar Squad Esports | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,061 | 54.7%580 W · 481 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe22e…074bbacked Polar Squad Esports | 11c | 199.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Polar Squad Esports | 17c | 192.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.91 | 849 | 49.4%419 W · 430 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Polar Squad Esports | 9c | 186.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 1,952 | 30.6%597 W · 1,355 L | -166.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Polar Squad Esports | 23c | 139.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 1,049 | 46%483 W · 566 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b89…a4cdbacked Kits Esports | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 708 | 57.1%404 W · 304 L | +41.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Kits Esports | 73c | 112.61$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 348 | 49.1%171 W · 177 L | +11.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Polar Squad Esports | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 1,054 | 47.2%497 W · 557 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Polar Squad Esports | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 938 | 44.3%416 W · 522 L | -31.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…d102backed Kits Esports | 75c | 85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Kits Esports | 77c | 83.85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 212 | 31.1%66 W · 146 L | -14.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4509…58aebacked Polar Squad Esports | 16c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,042 | 39.6%413 W · 629 L | -73.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd2…2b8fbacked Polar Squad Esports | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 424 | 51.2%217 W · 207 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Kits Esports | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 138 | 30.4%42 W · 96 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed Kits Esports | 78c | 24.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 1,207 | 40%483 W · 724 L | -63.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Kits Esports | 73c | 23.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 1,239 | 37.3%462 W · 777 L | -39.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Kits Esports | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f8…1d2fbacked Kits Esports | 76c | 13.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Polar Squad Esports vs Kits Esports - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- LoL: Polar Squad Esports vs Kits Esports (BO3) - LRN Regular seasonKits Esports won
- LoL: Polar Squad Esports vs Kits Esports - Game 1 WinnerKits Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.