Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc8f2a9b7ecc353518a1cb5fd6c06b648fcd2797d273bfc1cd5151d0ccfac0fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,683 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd13f…4906backed Yes | 27c | 2,400$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,752 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2357…2529backed No | 73c | 2,400$1,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,752 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 73c | 594$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.69 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 515$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.28 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 281.66$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.68 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 238.46$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.61 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 7c | 199.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 7c | 184.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 30c | 181$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.9 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 73c | 162.3$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.12 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed Yes | 35c | 138.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 35c | 125.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.51 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 120.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 42c | 119.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 31c | 112.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.17 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 37c | 102.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.31 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 28c | 94.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.05 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 26c | 94.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.19 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 93.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…cd5dbacked Yes | 31c | 88.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 12c | 83.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf66…3436backed Yes | 33c | 81.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 54c | 77.23$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 76.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 31c | 73.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 71.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 30c | 68.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 29c | 54.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 43c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 27c | 43.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 28c | 43.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 37c | 42.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 40.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 31c | 35.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 34.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 34c | 34.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 73c | 27.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 73c | 27.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…d064backed No | 73c | 25.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b7…68a2backed No | 50c | 20.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 65c | 20.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c2…c069backed No | 75c | 19.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -3.5wins | -0.30per pick | 71cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 4°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C or higher on March 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.