Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdca58fd16774258c2b968d77371c012b8228dafcf858f1c4e41d55f8a706857e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe4b3…c131backed Yes | 34c | 594.72$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.31 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 68c | 464.01$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.15 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 463.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 73c | 443.96$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.71 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 344.91$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b2…4186backed Yes | 3c | 307.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 274.02$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 33c | 223.85$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.18 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 35c | 209.48$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 37c | 198.48$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.58 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 69c | 189.18$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.47 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 188.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 26c | 183.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 31c | 182.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 167.61$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 65c | 150.7$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 28c | 149.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x991f…4a8bbacked Yes | 21c | 135.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 77c | 127.85$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa3…0d65backed No | 80c | 125.68$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 111$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 107.58$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 107.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 37c | 103.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 70c | 101.51$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 32c | 98.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 26c | 97.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 25c | 96.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 20c | 95.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 69c | 93.52$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 76c | 90.23$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 28c | 88.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 27c | 85.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 75c | 77.55$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 35c | 72.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 69c | 69.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 30c | 68.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 71c | 68.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 67.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 67c | 67.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 71c | 66.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 78c | 62.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…737abacked Yes | 30c | 62.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 67c | 62.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…e7c2backed No | 70c | 58.82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed No | 70c | 58.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 31c | 54.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…5ad8backed Yes | 36c | 52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…a114backed Yes | 37c | 51.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 65c | 50.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 31c | 50.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x565c…585abacked No | 76c | 47.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 23c | 46.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa1…e423backed Yes | 28c | 46.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa73…c2c4backed Yes | 32c | 46.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 28c | 45.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 63c | 45.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 62c | 44.4$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef7e…aee8backed Yes | 24c | 43.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 68c | 42.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 31c | 42.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d6…62a5backed No | 69c | 41.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 78c | 40.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 30c | 40.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…16c9backed No | 74c | 39.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 67c | 38.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 37c | 37.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 78c | 37.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b7…91f8backed No | 65c | 36.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 64c | 36.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 70c | 35.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 65c | 35.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 63c | 35.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…f673backed No | 72c | 33.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 71c | 31.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ba…bcf9backed Yes | 34c | 29.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…fe76backed No | 66c | 29.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 66c | 29.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 67c | 28.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b86…51a4backed No | 71c | 27.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x184d…67f7backed No | 73c | 26.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 25.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 69c | 25.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 70c | 24.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 63c | 23.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 65c | 22.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…e40ebacked No | 68c | 21.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 69c | 20.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x411e…9184backed No | 72c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 69c | 20.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f2…c2a5backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked No | 72c | 18.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 62c | 18.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca30…7eb2backed No | 69c | 16.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.