Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x099e43aecad29800c9d145b712e91637c3b468bbfd0524adcef79cf64e822d3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 0c | 40,842$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 79c | 564.9$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 26c | 331.56$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 10c | 317.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.48 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…16c9backed No | 15c | 306.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 60c | 283.09$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.63 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 7c | 201.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 192.47$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.02 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 189.37$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.8 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 183.49$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 181.68$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.3 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 35c | 181.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.54 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 177.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.27 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 56c | 166.35$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 32c | 156.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 74c | 146.18$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 73c | 137.68$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 120.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 44c | 108.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.46 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 53c | 107.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 106.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.73 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 36c | 97.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 66c | 86.24$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f93…07b1backed No | 38c | 84.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 57c | 83.77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf167…28eebacked No | 46c | 81.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 59c | 78.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 74.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 49c | 71.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 71c | 68.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…90d9backed No | 70c | 67.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 50c | 65.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 65.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fe52backed No | 49c | 58.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 51c | 57.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 50c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 31c | 54.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 51c | 49.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db1…6272backed Yes | 37c | 49.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 44c | 48.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38ba…bcf9backed No | 44c | 47.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86bc…5d37backed Yes | 37c | 43.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 24c | 42.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 35c | 41.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…2f80backed Yes | 44c | 40.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 57c | 39.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 65c | 38.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 55c | 34.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 49c | 33.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 62c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 60c | 32.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 31.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…210cbacked Yes | 46c | 30.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 45c | 30.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 47c | 29.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 56c | 26.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 50c | 25.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 70c | 24.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked Yes | 77c | 23.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 67c | 23.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9283…e1bfbacked Yes | 59c | 23.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…527ebacked No | 46c | 22.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 41cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 66c | 22.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 52c | 21.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 72c | 21.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x498f…a891backed Yes | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 20.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 54c | 20.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d9…03d2backed Yes | 68c | 19.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcb…7c12backed Yes | 59c | 17.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46fc…8f78backed Yes | 77c | 14.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.27 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.