UFC · resolved market
Gantt vs. Livingston
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcaefce339905613faa2971c5d95c0226e3f8f062144ae5947019b61aa6a3884
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ganttof Gantt, Livingston
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Gantt | 62c | 2,619$1,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$995.15 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4d…6055backed Gantt | 58c | 2,613$1,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.56 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Livingston | 38c | 1,316$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Livingston | 41c | 976.13$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Livingston | 40c | 757.5$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Livingston | 43c | 699.7$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.87 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Livingston | 38c | 660.21$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.65 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a6…d50dbacked Livingston | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Livingston | 35c | 511.24$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.95 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Gantt | 56c | 430$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.2 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Gantt | 65c | 387.28$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.28 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Gantt | 61c | 385.21$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.23 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Livingston | 42c | 380$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.2 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Gantt | 66c | 339.84$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.55 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Livingston | 38c | 255.66$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.15 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Livingston | 34c | 250$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbba…d41ebacked Livingston | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.35per pick | 54cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Livingston | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x465b…41c3backed Livingston | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Livingston | 35c | 171.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…04cbbacked Livingston | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Gantt | 61c | 82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Gantt | 57c | 80.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…8f05backed Livingston | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed Livingston | 43c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…92debacked Livingston | 38c | 47.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed Gantt | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…5eb2backed Gantt | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e4…7cc7backed Gantt | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Gantt vs. Livingstonthis page
- Aly vs. BaraniewskiBaraniewski won
- Hwang vs. McCorryMcCorry won
- Lee vs. SosaSosa won
- Uchegbu vs. ChovancekChovancek won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.